All Ten 2026 Predictions In One Place
It took me two weeks, 6000 words and nine posts, but I can finally round up my predictions for 2026 in one place. Here's the complete list in one handy, blissfully shortened post. Thanks for reading, and once (and finally), I wish you a happy, healthy New Year.
The algorithmically induced sugar sludge that has dominated culture for more than ten years is failing, and 2026 will be the year most of us notice that trend. And the company that will be most impacted? Meta and its flagship Instagram app.
Anthropic has a cleaner structure, cap table, and set of relationships than OpenAI, which should allow it to be more nimble in its journey to becoming a public company. In addition, I sense Anthropic’s corporate culture would embrace the responsibilities and reporting requirements inherent to being a public company. Anthropic also has a better financial story to tell – it’s been focused from day one on the enterprise market, where it is a leader.
2026 will be a year of innovation when it comes to the cost of compute, as well in how much compute is actually needed to perform the magic we've come to expect from AI applications. It's happened over and over again in this industry, and I think pricing the future based on the cost of the present is a losing bet.
For the past five or so years, tech giants have had to play defense when it comes to M&A and sweetheart partnerships - Meta was being sued over its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, Google over its consolidation of adtech and its domination of search distribution through deals with Apple and Samsung, among others. But in 2026, the governors are coming off.
By year's end, we'll have ambient AI in our homes, and it will actually work as expected. This in turn will shift what we expect as consumers of technology, in our cars, on our phones, and in the world around us. It won't be a revolution, but when we look back at 2026 ten years from now, we'll realize that this was the year "ambient intelligence" took off.
2026 will be the year that health takes center stage in the societal debate around AI. And OpenEvidence will be acquired by either OpenAI, Google, Apple, Microsoft or another advertising-driven big tech player (let's not forget that Microsoft owns LinkedIn). In 2026, everyone will have a point of view on how health and AI interact.
This will be the year that AI moves beyond chatbots and into the fabric of everyday life in ways that will surprise and delight hundreds of millions of people, changing what they thought they could accomplish and reordering economic productivity along the way. That in turn will drive tectonic shifts in the business models underpinning most companies reliant on digital technology. There will be lots of magic this year. But there will also be plenty of carnage as previously unbreachable moats start to crumble, not only in business, but also in society at large.
This year, ideological battle lines will be drawn - you're either in favor of the glorious future that AI promises, or you're fighting the plutocrats seeking to cement their power through mechanisms of surveillance capitalism. The evolution of society with AI will be messy, ungoverned, and seemingly incomprehensible. But at its core lies an existential question: What happens to us when we build machines capable of fabricating reality, seemingly rendering us obsolete in the process?
In 2026, we'll collectively decide if we trust generative AI, and any number of actors will prosper or fail based on that trust. Apple will leapfrog into the top echelon of AI companies, OpenAI will struggle, and large consumer brands will realize that in the context of AI sweeping through society, their most effective competitive advantage is the trust their brands evoke amongst consumers. 2026 will be the year that trust becomes the essential ingredient in business, culture, and society. And we'll have the conjuration of generative AI to thank for the trend.
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Previous predictions:
Extrovert•18K followers
2moPerfect January tradition John! Love the stamina on the 6k words 😅 Will dive into the predictions list this weekend
Amazon•4K followers
2moAs always, John Battelle clear-eyed, insightful, and to the point. #8 (cost) will drive #3 (magic and mayhem). The speed and compounding effect of innovation will truly create “magic” in every domain. Impact on society/social order will be more disruptive than in industry/business (less able to change/adapt). +1 on trust Pete Blackshaw - though I suspect we will be asking lots of questions about what “trust” really means when discerning fact from fiction becomes more difficult for the human brain to discern, and where it’s more easily influenced (manipulated?) by an ever smaller group of companies/leaders. 😳 it’s gonna be a wild, and I suspect, bumpy, ride!
BrandRank.AI•19K followers
2moDamn …been waiting for this. Really lands, especially #1. From the Answer Economy lens (trying to finalize a book on this topic), trust isn’t just a brand asset anymore — it’s the system. As AI moves from answers to actions, credibility gets enforced right at the moment of decision. Re Anthropic, across thousands of Brand Audits, Claude keeps bubbling to the top as the toughest (but fairest) judge — relentlessly evidence-driven and unforgiving on vague performance, sustainability, and ethics claims. Uncomfortable at times, but probably the right direction. This even creeps into uncomfortably honest responses on Anthropic-powered platforms like Amazon Rufus, “Is this snack actually healthy?” Re: voice: cooking is activity to watch…. It’s just too damn fun with generative AI. Crazy complicated for brands to win, but huge experience lift for consumers. Last bit (related to our last live conversation): the rapid spread of AI ad models. We’ve seen how messy that got in search. My optimistic take is platforms and advertisers will realize pretty quickly that eroding trust breaks the whole system. Great provocation. As always. Let’s catch up soon!
Perigon•5K followers
2moReally appreciate you rounding this up makes it way easier to follow your insights John Battelle