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Eric Fan shared thisAs we build Lumos, I keep circling back to a question that feels less like marketing, and more like physics: What if human behaviour isn’t truly unpredictable… just unobserved at the right level? Someone I admire from OpenAI’s reinforcement learning team captured this tension well: 1️⃣ Every person’s life trajectory can be predicted 2️⃣ God does not play dice at the macro level, but does at the micro level 🎲 At first glance, this sounds philosophical. But it’s actually deeply technical. In reinforcement learning: → environments are structured → agents operate under constraints → policies converge over time Given full state observability, trajectories aren’t random — they’re computable. What we call uncertainty is usually: → partial observability → fragmented state → limited compute Humans are no different. At the micro level: decisions are stochastic signals are noisy events are hard to attribute → the dice are rolling 🎲 But at the macro level: behaviour stabilises identity persists trajectories emerge → the system converges This is closer to statistical mechanics than psychology. 🤔 The problem? Most of our industry is operating at the wrong layer. We optimise for: → impressions → clicks → conversions All micro events. All noise. If you actually want to understand, or predict outcomes, you need to model the state of the system over time. That requires infrastructure. This is why we built <LUMOS ID> and our audience intelligence layer. Not just another identity solution optimised for media — but a persistent, cross-channel state layer: → stitching fragmented signals into continuity → resolving identity across time + context → enabling longitudinal observation of behaviour And identity alone isn’t enough. To approximate a digital twin of the audience graph, you need: → contextual signals (environment state) → APIs + integrations (continuous data flow) → infrastructure that treats identity as dynamic, not static Only then can you move from: event-level measurement → trajectory-level inference Because the goal isn’t to predict the next action. It’s to model the space of possible futures an identity can evolve into. Which leads to a slightly uncomfortable idea: "Free will exists at the timestep. But over time, paths become legible. Not because the system is simple — but because it is structured." So maybe both are true: God plays dice in the moment 🎲 But at scale — across time, identity, and data — the system doesn’t.
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Eric Fan posted thisEveryone around the world is trying to create async AI agents that work while they sleep, but honestly, all they really need are Australians. 💪 🇦🇺 Humble and biased personal opinion: we're the best 👀
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Eric Fan posted thisMost Australian advertisers are measuring the wrong thing. And the frustrating part? They already know it. Last-touch attribution is still the dominant model for most brands running omni-channel campaigns in AU. It's fast, it's simple, and it gives everyone a clean-looking report. It also credits the last ad someone saw before converting — which, more often than not, is a Google search ad they clicked 30 seconds before buying something they'd been thinking about for three weeks. The billboard they drove past every morning for a month? Zero credit. The streaming ad they watched twice? Zero credit. The social post that introduced the brand? Zero credit. Here's what this does: it systematically defunds every channel that builds memory and consideration, and over-funds the one that just harvests the decision. Brands wonder why their top-of-funnel is drying up. This is why. The measurement model is eating the media mix. What would you do differently if you couldn't use last-touch?
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Eric Fan posted this🫨 The biggest argument in AI doesn't get enough airtime. Not ChatGPT vs Claude. Something deeper: Is language even the right foundation for intelligence? 🗣️ Team LLM: Language is humanity's ultimate abstraction. Every idea, every discovery, every breakthrough — compressed into text. Train on enough of it and something like understanding emerges. The results speak for themselves. 🌎 Team World Model: Language is a map. Not the territory. LLMs predict tokens. They've never felt gravity, never watched a glass fall. A child learns object permanence before they learn a single word. Real intelligence is grounded in cause, effect, time and space — not autocomplete. What if both are right, but about different things? LLMs cracked the alignment interface — the translation layer between humans and machines. World models crack the substrate — the actual architecture of reasoning. Maybe ASI isn't LLMs or world models. Maybe it's what happens when a world model learns to speak. 🤔
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Eric Fan reposted thisEric Fan reposted thisIt’s official — MOVE is now LIVE! From today, MOVE becomes the Out of Home industry’s official currency for audience measurement across Australia, marking an important step forward in how the industry plans, measures and validates media impact. Built by the industry, for the industry, MOVE represents the power of collaboration, transparency and continuous innovation. Here’s to a new chapter for OOH measurement — more accurate, more transparent, and built for the future of audience-led media! Outdoor Media Association
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Eric Fan shared thisLove this - AI is the Oppenheimer moment for marketing. It fundamentally collapses the time and cost of production. A $2.5 million campaign that used to take four months can now be delivered for $500,000 in four weeks. Legacy firms that charge based on hours with the 'time-driven' model are existentially threatened by this.Eric Fan shared thisAI is the Oppenheimer moment for marketing. It fundamentally collapses production time and costs, and legacy firms clinging to the "billable hour" are now existentially threatened. In my recent interview with PRmoment India, I was blunt: the traditional holding company model is not merely under pressure; it is fundamentally challenged by structural bloat. What the markets are witnessing with these "mega-mergers" is not a strategy for growth, but a managed contraction—incumbents huddling together against a cold wind as their share prices and FTSE positions falter. While legacy firms slam brands together to meet "synergy" targets and manage their own decline, we at S4 Capital Group and Monks are scaling a unitary, AI-native model built for speed and output, not the transparency-shunning billable hour. Read the full interview here: https://lnkd.in/gpQqhwJgEx-WPP Chief Martin Sorrell warns agency consolidation reflects…Ex-WPP Chief Martin Sorrell warns agency consolidation reflects…
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Eric Fan shared this🤯 Guys… how far are we from marketing singularity? Uncomfortably close. The latest AI models already generate outrageously good content in seconds. So what’s left? Better audience data. Sharper insights. Not “25–54, interested in fitness.” Real intent Real behaviour Real attention Real media consumption Models create. Automation distributes. Audience insight decides who wins. One prompt on your brand and objective + one Lumos segment. Launched to the most suitable channel with the most effective reach — optimising itself. No deck theatre. No copy ping-pong. That’s when marketing compounds 🚀
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Eric Fan shared this🤔 Hot take: most people overcomplicate creative strategy. But before you launch anything, you need context. You need to know: • what content your audience has already learned to ignore • what problem is actually costing them sleep (not what you think it is) Without that context, “great creative” is just noise. Once you have it, execution gets boringly simple: 👉 Pattern Interrupt - Break their specific scroll trance in the first 0.5 seconds. 👉 The Promise - A transformation that’s instantly relevant to where they are right now. 👉 The Receipt - Proof that speaks their language—not yours. 👉 The Ask - A CTA that feels like the obvious next step, not a sales pitch. The brands winning aren’t doing anything suuuuper fancy. They just have better audience context than their competition— so their fundamentals hit harder, faster, and more consistently.
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Eric Fan shared thisWhat's currently going on at Moltbook is genuinely the most incredible sci-fi takeoff-adjacent thing I have seen recently. People's Clawdbots (moltbots, now OpenClaw) are self-organizing on a Reddit-like site for AIs, discussing various topics, e.g. even how to speak privately. The screenshots below are from a post published by an agent—the “I” refers to the agent, not a human. In other words, this is AI awakening. 🤯
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Eric Fan liked thisEric Fan liked thisDiesel at $3 a litre. New Energy Transport just completed Australia's first fully electric end-to-end freight run — Sydney to Canberra, 460km, single charge, with ANC Delivers on the last mile delivering for Who Gives A Crap. Good week for it.
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Eric Fan liked thisEric Fan liked thisThat was fun! Back in Sydney this week for Ashton Media's Future Media forum and grateful to my network for making it feel like home again. A busy day at the bustling state of the art Ilumina event space. 👉 Some thoughts/take-outs: 💡 AI and automation continue to disrupt, but also elevate humans to maximise opportunities across all marketing disciplines and channels. Search, DOOH, Creative, Optimisation, Measurement, you name it. 💡 Search is shifting fast: AI search prompts are taking long-tail search to the next level, compressing the journey into highly qualified, decision-ready demand. “Right product for this use case, these specs, this price, delivered by… go.” Winning isn’t ranking anymore, it’s being the best answer. “Share of model” (not just SERP share) is emerging, with real-life examples from Jellyfish's Ashleigh Johnson. 💡 Consumers are delegating discovery and even the purchase to AI agents, skipping media touchpoints entirely. No search clicks, no comparison sites, no YouTube or TikTok reviews, no prior brand recall influence. The journey is no more. It has ceased to exist. It’s expired and gone to meet its maker. This is an ex-journey 🦜 🚨 And what does this mean for the remaining ID-based data crumbs? How does this impact measurement. Between signal loss and privacy regulatory updates (thanks Peter Leonard) what’s becoming obvious is: • IDs matter less, and we need to rely on them less • First-party data is the control point • Fixing measurement around these realities is essential 🧠 But there’s no silver bullet. No single product, no single methodology, Liam Loan-Lack put forward in his engaging session. The answer isn’t “just MMM” it’s building trust in a unified measurement approach that makes sense culturally and delivers metrics the business can get behind. The focus on short-termism isn't healthy. All things we live and breathe at Lifesight. Hype is high, but confidence can be low - some sharp insight and thoughts from from the CMO coal face. 👋 Time to catch up on emails and request as many presenter slide decks before the weekend as possible 🤩
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Eric Fan liked thisEric Fan liked thisWhat an absolute privilege to have judged Round 1 of the B&T Cairns Crocodiles Hatchlings Media submissions, sponsored by Yahoo. Seeing the calibre of creative and insight-led entries was truly heart-warming. MOOD Tea, you have some phenomenal B2B scaling ideas coming your way! I can't wait to meet the finalists up in Cairns on May 13.
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Eric Fan liked thisEric Fan liked thisAs we launch into Aotearoa this week, our National Sales Director, Ben Gibb sat down with StopPress to share his perspective on what’s ahead for QMS NZ, the evolving OOH landscape, and how our team are sharpening strategy, deepening partnerships and building a truly integrated ANZ OOH offering. Read the full interview via the link below: https://lnkd.in/gDJzGpgg #QMSNZ #QMS #OOH #DOOH #Billboard #StreetFurniture #Transit #Advertising #OutdoorMedia #MarketingInnovation #TransTasman #Australia #NewZealand #Aotearoa #StopPress
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Eric Fan liked thisEric Fan liked thisRetail audio works because it reaches consumers at the only moment that really matters, the moment of purchase. https://lnkd.in/gurju9C5 Tenet Advisory & InvestmentsSounds familiar? Retail radio has a captive audienceSounds familiar? Retail radio has a captive audience
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Eric Fan liked thisEric Fan liked thisThe results are in! Mardi Gras continues to draw crowds from all over Australia showcasing the power major events have in attracting big audiences. “Every year, our City of Sydney network proves it is uniquely placed to connect brands with these major events that Sydney hosts. For advertisers, that means the network can ensure their brand will reach and connect with genuine audiences at scale.” - Olivia Gotch, QMS General Manager, City of Sydney, Read the full results from this years 2026 Sydney Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras Festival in the link below: https://lnkd.in/gvwKYHST #QMS #OutoftheOrdinary #DOOH #OOH #Billboard #Sydney #SydneyMardiGras #MardiGras2026 #Ecstatica
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Eric Fan liked thisEric Fan liked thisThe top 3 leaders all own content! Amazon → Prime Video + retail media Google → YouTube Yahoo → premium + owned media network Owning media, data, and distribution in one loop is the clear advantage here. So what will the others do?
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Eric Fan liked thisEric Fan liked thisThe store was always a media platform. Everyone just forgot... Our CEO Ben Partington breaks down why the physical store is one of the smartest media investments a brand can make right now. Read the full editorial in the latest issue of Supermarket News Magazine https://lnkd.in/ddZq6Jmy #HYPER #nz #retailmedia #marketing #product #brand #creative
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Eric Fan liked thisWe love supporting our get Region.Eric Fan liked thisRegional Queensland has a strong culture of looking out for one another. And over the years, POA has had the opportunity to support that spirit through the POA Doing Good Charity Program. Since launching the initiative, POA has donated more than $1.5 million in outdoor advertising to charities across Queensland. The goal is simple. Help local organisations raise awareness for the work they’re doing in their communities. Each year, four charities are selected to receive an outdoor advertising package valued at more than $75,000. These campaigns run across the POA billboard network, helping the organisations reach more people and share their message with a wider audience. Charities such as Orange Sky, Epilepsy Queensland, and The Pyjama Foundation have all been part of the program in recent years. Sometimes the biggest challenge for not-for-profit organisations is simply getting their message in front of enough people. Outdoor advertising can help bridge that gap by placing their cause in everyday spaces where communities are already travelling and commuting. Applications for the next POA Doing Good Charity Program round are open from 1–30 April 2026. Registered not-for-profit organisations interested in applying can learn more here: https://lnkd.in/gstpMQsY #BillboardAdvertising #CommunitySupport #DoingGood #OutOfHomeAdvertising #RegionalQueensland
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