Bayesian

@Bayesian0_0

#1 AI forecaster on Manifold Markets (and #2 across all categories) manifold.markets/Bayesian I want everything to make sense

Joined July 2024

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Bayesian
@Bayesian0_0
Aug 27
I give it like 30% (vs the bet’s prob of 20%) Manifold market that tracks the bet: manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-…
Ben Moll
@ben_moll
Aug 27
Thanks to @willmacaskill, @SamuelAlbanie, @tomcohen for taking the other side of this bet at 4:1 odds and to @andrewho03 for joining on my side. Here are the final terms we agreed on benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/ More (within) ~7 years from now 😃
Bayesian
@Bayesian0_0
Aug 27
the way i'm thinking about this is that open math problems are distributed in their difficulty (and slope) in a Epoch Difficulty Index (EDI) way, and there's a certain level of return to inference compute so, say, the easiest 1% of open math problems in the top 10000 by
Greg Burnham
@GregHBurnham
Aug 26
Replying to @GregHBurnham
A world of difference between "AI can solve 10% of math problems of such-and-such a level if you throw $20K of tokens at them" and "AI can solve 1% of such math problems, only ever takes $200 of tokens but you need a mathematician to hold its hand a bit"
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Bayesian
@Bayesian0_0
Aug 26
Gotta disagree with roon here, small neolabs that rely on some big breakthrough to become competitive are not nearly as much of a threat to the frontier labs as meta, spacexai, or frontier chinese labs are. The frontier labs are nimble enough that if a new architectural /
roon
@tszzl
Aug 26
everyone assumed it would be google that would unseat or threaten openai’s lead on models but the one that gave them a run for their money was an (at the time) smaller company called anthropic it is now in the interests of both incumbents to say, and possibly true: RSI is at
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Bayesian
@Bayesian0_0
Aug 20
Based and better visibility into the potentially dangerous ai trends -pilled
SecureBio
@SecureBio
Aug 20
The OpenAI Foundation has granted SecureBio Detection $17.2M to reduce our end-to-end time (sample collection to results) from 14 to 3 days, expand our collection footprint, and further validate our detection system: securebio.org/blog/three-day…
Bayesian
@Bayesian0_0
Aug 20
Manifold took a bit to update but it’s nearly at a coinflip now
near
@nearcyan
Dec 20, 2025
Replying to @BenjaminDEKR
a little hard when anthropic will be worth more in 4 years
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