Peter Madsen

CAIS and consultancy Mercer produced their fourth annual survey of advisors on alternative investments. The results showed 90% of respondents are allocating to alts currently, with 88% planning to increase alts allocations over the next two years. Mercer’s Gregg Sommer and CAIS’ Brad Walker commented. https://lnkd.in/eSDwzqbp #WealthSolutionsReport #FinancialAdvisors #WealthManagement #AlternativeInvestments

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The asset price forecasts for the next 2-5 years   https://lnkd.in/eskTU6gP These are the forecasts that I wrote back in spring 2025. All the trends have been and will be intact. I thought to write detailed explanations before I post the forecasts. But I never had the time. Instead of waiting forever, I will post the forecasts now. Note that many of the predictions will go opposite to my long term forecasts since 2011. Whether those long term forecasts are still valid will depend on how America emerges from this changing era. I am pessimistic about it but maybe Americans can get it right eventually this time as well. A.    China will probably try to take over Taiwan (70% chance), along with the most advanced chip producer, by embargoing it before Trump’s term ends. Most likely China will succeed. So any foreign companies with sizable exposure to Chinese market are vulnerable (e.g., AAPL, TSLA). The prices for things like advanced chips and rare earth will shoot up (MP, CRML, METC, AREC). Even if China doesn’t take over Taiwan, the split between China and the US as well as the West will become reality. China’s rise is a result of globalization, yet also incompatible with globalization and is digging the grave for globalization. B.    China’s equity will have a sharp upward rally beyond any previous peaks. Emerging markets will also have a sharp upswing, ending the dominance of the U.S. stocks markets and US dollar from 2011, which was when I predicted the upswing of the U.S. stock markets and the huge underperformance of emerging markets. Although I have been long term bullish on India from 2011, I would prefer Brazil in this upswing (ETF: EWZ). C.    There will be a period of fast inflation. Oil prices (after a dip) and prices of industrial and precious metals will likely go up a lot, along with the stock prices of metal and oil producers. Such producers in emerging markets will benefit particularly, but US producers such as CLF would too. D.   Interest rates will go up over time globally, probably by a lot. E.    USD will depreciate substantially F.    Gold will go above $10,000 a troy ounce. “I have seen the current correction coming and gold price will probably drop from almost 4400 to at least 3500, and gold miners’ stock prices including AEM’s could drop by half before this correction is over.” (I added what’s in the parenthesis on October 23, 2025) One can keep holding AEM for the next couple years though. G.   U.S. housing price in the U.S. will peak this year, but it may not crash as hard as the 2006-2011 period. H.   U.S. will likely have a large stock market bubble, then probably a recession along with a bear market with stock market dropping substantially before or soon after Trump’s term ends.  I.      The stock and housing prices may not drop as much in nominal term due to inflation and monetary delusion. In real terms, they may look much more terrible.  

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L&B White Paper: The Executive Compensation Conundrum - How Much is Too Much? Link to white paper: https://lnkd.in/e4rpX4BD 15 REIT CEOs have consistently underperformed their proxy peers, yet their executive compensation was rarely adjusted Executives should be subject to the same review standards as other employees and removed for underperformance Shareholders can best express their frustration by voting against the compensation committee members and say on pay

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Useful detail from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond on the US labor market, which is showing signs of softening. The challenge is that inflation data are also problematic - core PCE looks likely to have edged further away from the 2% target. The Bank of England’s latest policy meeting gives an example of how the Fed meeting in September may go: prolonged debate and voting and a very divided committee to get to a decision to cut 25bps. https://lnkd.in/gUDwUWKQ

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Every #allocator should read this excellent research piece from Aspect Capital. It walks you through the four major regime shifts of the past twenty-five years -- dotcom, GFC, Euro crisis and the return of #inflation -- and gives you the blow by blow on how #trendfollowing performed. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and I touched upon it briefly in a recent Top Traders Unplugged podcast. Key points: - The real money in the space is made during economic regime shifts: the world changes, assets reprice over a few years, most investors sit on their hands, #CTAs pivot and, BOOM, generate a decade of #alpha. - Even during great runs, strap in for drawdowns as mood swings can wrong-foot the space even as cracks are spreading in the ice. Three observations for allocators: 1. Allocators should view CTAs as a strategic allocation and stop trying to time the space. Statistically, it should be 20%+ of a portfolio. In the real world, 3% is the sweet spot: large enough to notice during the great periods, small enough to hide in the tall grass during ugly ones. 2. Alpha is in the big trades. With a few exceptions, Aspect points to large, sustained moves in oil, Treasuries, US large cap, EM equities, US dollar, gold, etc. This is why #hedgefund replication is so effective: it picks up on the signal (shifts in major markets) and invests in them directly and efficiently. 3. This year has been all about extreme geopolitical noise, but no economic regime shifts: no inflation spike, no recession, no real bond market tantrum, no sustained dollar collapse, etc. If you are NOT invested in the space, ask yourself: are you really confident that something big will NOT break over the coming few years? #etfs #ucits https://lnkd.in/eQRs_hw4

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Pay attention people. It’s not the collateralized bonds owned by investors you need to worry about though. It’s the loans on regional bank balance sheets. They have already stopped making business loans, which is the reason why businesses too small to be public had negative jobs numbers in the ADP report.

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Apollo-backed alternative investments platform CAIS has established a capital markets division to offer structured notes, hedging & monetization strategies and managed solutions referral services, in response to a rising demand from US registered indepedent advisors (#RIAs). The unit, led by Marc Premselaar, will centralise the solutions with the firm's execution trading. It's fully integrated with the broader CAIS platform. ‘Advisors are increasingly taking advantage of defined-outcome strategies to capitalise on market opportunities, manage risk, and seek to achieve the financial objectives for their end clients,’ said Premselaar. Reported by Summer Wang. To read more (member access): https://lnkd.in/eN938tuv

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Studying the informativeness of fund managers' interim valuation reports about portfolio companies on final outcomes, from Ege Y. Ercan, Steven N. Kaplan, and Ilya A. Strebulaev https://lnkd.in/exemSSb8

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Quarterly Report Preview: The world of alternative evergreen fund structures is expanding. Learn more about some of the Evergreen Specialty Structures including Retail 3(c)(7) Funds and more in the upcoming XA Investments Quarterly Research Report. The research team at XAI is pleased to share this preview into our quarterly interval fund research report which will be published July 22. The industry leading report provides actionable insights and consolidated data, including market statistics, recent fund filings, sponsor data, and market overviews. Contact us at info@xainvestments.com for pricing information and to subscribe. If you have any questions regarding XAI's quarterly research report or on the interval / tender fund market as a whole, be sure to attend XAI's Office Hours on July 31st at 2pm CDT. Click the link below to register. https://hubs.la/Q03wZGM50 #XAIResearch #XAIConsulting #IntervalFunds #TenderOfferFunds

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What the Latest JOLTS Report Really Means for Job Seekers (and How to Respond) The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS, is a monthly report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that tracks job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs across the economy. It’s widely followed because it offers insight into how confident employers and employees really are, beyond headline unemployment numbers. The latest December JOLTS report drew attention after showing a sharp decline in reported job openings, falling to the lowest level since 2020. On the surface, that sounds alarming. Predictably, headlines rushed to explain it away with familiar narratives: economic uncertainty, tariffs, AI, immigration trends, and slowing growth. But here’s the more useful takeaway for job seekers and career professionals: this data likely reflects changes in how jobs are posted; not a sudden collapse in hiring. Over the past several years, employer job-posting behavior has shifted significantly. Many companies now use subscription or enterprise hiring platforms rather than paying per listing. As a result, job postings often remain live even when a role isn’t actively being filled; leading to the rise of so-called “ghost jobs.” A system cleanup, platform migration, or increased use of AI-driven recruiting tools could easily produce a large drop in listings without indicating fewer real opportunities. What’s especially telling is what didn’t change. Layoff rates remained steady. Quit rates were stable. When only one component of JOLTS moves sharply while others stay calm, it increases the likelihood of a data anomaly rather than a hiring freeze. For job seekers, this distinction matters. Fewer public postings doesn’t mean fewer jobs, it means hiring is becoming quieter and more selective. Employers still need talent, but they’re more likely to rely on referrals, recruiters, and targeted outreach instead of mass job ads. What this means for your job search strategy: A resume must clearly communicate value, not just qualifications Networking and recruiter relationships become more important than online applications Salary negotiations require market context, not just posted ranges Candidates who can articulate impact stand out in a tighter, more deliberate hiring environment The bottom line: this JOLTS report shouldn’t be discouraging, but it should prompt a smarter approach. Economic data comes and goes. Strong positioning, clear messaging, and proactive career strategy remain the most reliable advantages in any market. Visit us at www.csamg.com for more insights. #JobTransitions #EmploymentUpdates #JOLTSReport #carreertransition #UnemploymentRate #jobsearch

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Looking at real final sales of domestic private purchasers, Q/Q, and even Y/Y the deceleration since Q3 last year, from 3.4 to 1.2 should be enough of a signal for the Fed to cut. Payrolls are likely to be an upside surprise for July, and the forward inflation concerns are real enough — tariffs and a weak dollar. But growth leads payrolls and payrolls lead inflation. 25 cut today, which isn’t happening, makes sense. Is Powell determined to earn his “too late” monicker?

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Astoria’s Portfolio Management Team has released our updated Model Commentary and supporting resources as of November 30, 2025. These materials provide insights into portfolio positioning, risk management, and key macro trends that are shaping asset allocation across asset classes. All resources are available to clients on our Advisor Resources page: https://lnkd.in/e-_zTkuV If you would like access or wish to preview these materials, our team would be glad to connect. #AstoriaAdvisors #Macro #PortfolioManagement #InvestmentStrategy #EconomicOutlook

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Short mathematical paper: "Empirical estimator of diversification quotient" analyzes "a recently proposed measure...quantifies the reduction in a portfolio’s risk-level parameter attributable to diversification." https://lnkd.in/ezY47Wh6

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The FOMC lowered their policy rate by 25 bps on Wednesday as expected, but the hawks pushed back against another cut at the December meeting. In response, short rate markets repriced the odds of a December cut from 100% to 65%. The Fed also announced that they will stop shrinking their balance sheet on December 1. We’ll keep an eye on funding conditions through year end, but at this point in the process, the Fed has managed their second attempt at QT more adroitly than their first. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gCvqXkBY #NISA #ChiefEconomistUpdates

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HarbourVest Partners offers a detailed comparison of multi-manager and single-manager approaches to evergreen funds, highlighting the unique characteristics and portfolio construction strategies of each. Authors Craig MacDonald and Caroline Hooft Graafland, CFA explain how pairing both types can create complementary exposures for private market investors. https://lnkd.in/ek2Xs2N8 #Evergreens Evergreens insights straight to your email: https://lnkd.in/e2THdgfW

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Interesting discussion by Viktor Shvets of a fascinating Substack piece (really -- you should read it) by Philip Trammell and Dwarkesh Patel on the future of wealth in a world increasing dominated by artificial intelligence and robotics. The value of labor declines, perhaps to almost nothing, while capital is everything. Inequality rises dramatically, in part because of advantages (access and cost efficiency) the wealthy have in investing, even as AI means that everyone has the best active investment strategy (their) money can buy. Inequality becomes intolerable, redistributive policies become inevitable, and the future (decades from now, at least) economic system looks quite different. One idea, which the Trammell and Patel piece touches on in passing: what if the democratization of private markets reduces the advantages of the wealthy/institutional investors, and makes possible wider participation in AI-centered startups and other drivers of productivity and returns on capital? My observation about democratization has been that private markets investment success often depends on being one of the best -- unlike in public markets and index funds, you need to be a winner and not everyone can be a winner. So what happens when everyone invests in private markets? A path forward would seem to be a transformation (through technology and regulation) of what private markets are, from a diversifier and return enhancer for institutions, to a (continued) shift in how businesses are funded. Maybe lower returns (until AI boosts them all), but a democratization of capital and an a partial enabler of more equitable (or at least less-inequitable) distribution of wealth in the coming decades? #privatemarkets #AI

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More coverage of TIIP - The Investment Integration Project’s portfolio review of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF) — this time in Chief Investment Officer The review highlights that institutional investors can play a role not only in markets, but in the systems that underlie them: environmental, social, financial, and governance systems. In other words: asset owners are not just market participants, but system participants — and potential system influencers. As I continue to reflect on RBF’s experience, I keep circling on a few implications for other investors: - Systems thinking is a strategic lens. Divestment is not enough. To be credible and durable, investors must also shape governance, measurement, incentives, partnerships, and influence. - Implementation structure matters. By shifting to a more flexible OCIO arrangement, RBF gained greater control and agility to embed mission alignment across its portfolio. - Transparency unlocks collective progress. Sharing both successes and challenges lowers the barrier for peers and builds credibility for the field. - Mission and performance are not contradictory. When well designed, they can reinforce each other. As Gerry Watson, RBF’s Executive Vice President for Finance, emphasized in the Chief Investment Officer article: “Our goal was always to combat people saying that you have to be willing to lose money to do this good work. We felt that proving otherwise was how we could contribute to the industry.” Full article here: https://lnkd.in/e5CkEnBg Thanks to Amy Resnick for the feature, and many of the field leaders who helped inform the report, including Bob Bancroft, Don Chen, Adam Connaker, Ellen Dorsey, Dana Lanza, Elizabeth McGeveran, Rey Ramsey, and Fran Seegull. #investing #ImpactInvesting #SystemsThinking

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💡 New data from Colibri Institute show that funds with women general partners deliver a 1.6 percent IRR advantage on average, despite structural fundraising barriers. In its latest white paper on venture capital performance and institutional portfolio construction, Colibri Institute analyzes fund performance data, portfolio construction, and risk behavior across thousands of venture funds — offering a data-driven lens on how capital is actually performing. ➡️ Read even more insights by downloading the white paper: https://lnkd.in/gfx6QfuR

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BBNC is pleased to announce the launch of its newest company, Alaska Investment Management (AIM)! AIM is an institutional asset manager headquartered in Anchorage, Alaska, with investement portfolio offerings that include Outsourced Chief Investment Officer, Intermediate, and Short-Duration Fixed Income strategies. “Building on the cultures and history of the Bristol Bay region, BBNC has a long record of generating new opportunities through strategy and innovation,” said Jason Metrokin, BBNC President and CEO. “Entering the investment management business is another important milestone for BBNC and demonstrates how Alaska Native Corporations are diversifying and moving forward.” Read the full press release at: tinyurl.com/4sh3xmh2

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