Michael Golub

Businesses with commissaries that have extra capacity should launch CPG. Let me explain and give some examples. Zucker's Bagels, a brick and mortar retail chain, has a commissary in one of their stores in NYC. In the short term, they are using it to make products for their new CPG brand. Pros: No MOQ production runs Already purchases raw materials Has a management team in play Has operations already intact NYC distro can pickup Tons of costs are removed. We just spoke to a bakery that has 40% capacity open and wants to start a CPG brand focused on a fresh product. Again, same type of savings BUT this time also has labor that isn’t being fully utilized that is fixed and on staff. What other scenarios have people seen where efficiencies are realized to this magnitude out of the gate? What are peoples thoughts in general?

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Unpopular opinion: Gross revenue is not a meaningful number for CPG companies. I am sorry folks, but it is a fairy tale number. Meaningless is a bit too harsh, because it does help you calculate your trade spend to compare with others? However, it is not your revenue, because it is not the real number that customer’s paid. As an example, let’s say I sell someone a car for $10,000, but I also agree to give the buyer $1,000 back if they buy it today. Virtually, no one would say that person paid $10,000 for my car, I think we can all agree they paid $9,000! That is Net Revenue. In CPG, we sell our products to retailers, distributors or consumers at the discounted price that they paid. That is the real revenue and that amount is called Net Revenue. It is the revenue net of discounts, rebates, and promotions – aka, the price paid. When speaking to the founders of larger emerging CPG companies, they only speak in terms of net revenue. They know that it’s the only revenue that investors, investment banks and acquirers care about. Small companies talk about gross revenue to look larger than they are, but don’t fall into that trap, we can all see through it. My advice to founders is to make the switch and start speaking in terms of net revenue. You will immediately seem more sophisticated than many other founders. #CPG #CPGinvestors #venturecapital

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PRODUCT–MARKET FIT IS THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS IN CPG You can have: • Beautiful packaging • A $5M seed round • A strong team …and still be fuc*ed if you don’t have PMF. Here’s how you know you’ve actually found it 1) Reorders happen 2) New doors open 3) You can raise prices and velocity doesn’t plummet 4) You can pour gas on it and it scales How else do you know if you have product market fit?

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If you are a founder or investor, this is the one post you should read this week on LinkedIN. Such an important concept and brilliant post by Kiva about the importance of capital efficiency as an indicator of future success. #venturecapital #privateequity #CPG #naturalfoods #ventureinvesting

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Let's dispel the myth of the overnight success in CPG. I often hear people say that company just came out of nowhere and now they are having this huge exit. The reality is the founder, team and investors have toiled away in obscurity for many years before that huge exit. I think the reason think they are an overnight success is because of the frequency illusion. Once you notice something or are focused on that thing, you will see it a lot more. In the last few years before an exit, it feels like the brand is everywhere because they have finally hit strong brand awareness and we notice them more. Let's not belittle all the blood, sweat and tears that the founder and team put into building the company by calling them an overnight success. There are no overnight successes in CPG Here are some examples of the time from founding to exit for many of the larger exits over the past year: Bachan's (12 years) Beatbox Bev (14 years) Daily Harvest (10 years) Dr. Squatch (12 years) Good Culture (10 years) Good Crisp (10 years) Once Upon a Farm (10 years) Poppi (10 years) Siete (11 years) Simple Mills (12 years)

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Consumer demand shifts quickly, but the tools brands use to understand that demand often lag behind. Harmonya is changing that. Their platform turns unstructured product data into insights that help CPG companies and retailers anticipate trends, optimize assortments, and move at the pace of today’s consumer. We’re proud to back Harmonya as they help brands transform product data into a competitive advantage. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/e4M7xeSg #PortfolioCompany #RetailTech #ConsumerInsights #CPG #CommerceTech

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Once Upon a Farm filing for IPO is great news for the CPG ecosystem A few quick takes after reading the S-1: - Growth beyond pouches: 22% of revenue and 50% of growth coming from relatively new products (including Tractor Wheels - my daughter’s all-time fav) is impressive. If you asked me 5y ago for O’Farm’s biggest risks, being stuck in pouches and the fridge would have been top of the list - Valuable consumer: their customer base accounted for $78 billion in aggregate LTM retail sales — with only 4.4% household penetration, this speaks to O’Farm resonating with a consumer very willing to premiumize the set for the right brand / product attributes - Brand feels bigger than the business: $200m of LTM sales is no joke — esp since they were at $8m just 6.5y ago — but it’s less than I expected. Part of this is the national advertising campaigns that result from Jen Garner’s platform. Still, my gut says this business has room to run (definitely door count, also SKUs) - Cash burn: Growing this fast off a large base is not cheap — it requires a big team and a lot of marketing $ (top of funnel and in store). Still, I expect this to be the biggest push that O’Farm will get: when will the operating leverage show up? At $200m in sales, I would have expected them to be breakeven… - Scarcity of public emerging CPG: O’Farm will be the first pure play health & wellness food stock. There are very few ways for investors to play the biggest megatrend in consumer: healthier, emerging brands taking share from large CPG. In the public markets, you have energy drinks (Monster, Celsius), plant-based (Oatly, Beyond Meat). Above all else (incl a CEO with public co experience and a currency for M&A) I think this is the case for O’Farm going public rather than selling to big food Congrats to John Foraker, Jen Garner, Cassandra Curtis, Ari Raz & the O’Farm team / Jared Jacobs & the CAVU team

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Very few brands can actually identify how much of a particular SKU they have in stock. "How many units of Product X do we have available to sell right now?" is a fundamental question. Yet most mid-market retail brands with multiple channels and fulfillment locations cannot answer it accurately. Why? Problem 1: Inventory lives in silos. Your warehouse says 100 units. Your Shopify shows 85. Your Amazon listing shows 110. Which is correct? Nobody knows. Problem 2: Systems don't talk in real-time. Batch updates mean your inventory counts are outdated by the time you question them. "Available" inventory is already allocated to another order. Problem 3: Complex operations amplify the problem. Good luck adding a second 3PL, a retail partnership, or ship-from-store capability without the visibility problem multiplying exponentially. The business-destroying impacts cascade from there: → Overselling leads to canceled orders and angry customers. → Underselling means missed revenue opportunities. → Customer service has no reliable source of truth. → Marketing & sales can't make accurate promises about availability. Begin mapping a fix with these diagnostic questions to assess your inventory visibility: 1. Can you instantly see available inventory across all locations? 2. Do all your sales channels show the same availability? 3. When inventory moves, how much time does it take until all systems reflect the change? 4. Can you track inventory that's allocated but not yet shipped? If you answered "no" to any of these, you're operating blind. Competitors with better visibility will capture the sales you're missing – and you are missing them. Modern order operations solves all this through network-first architecture. Everything happens simultaneously. The result? Happier customers. Higher Sales.

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Nice white paper by Mat on what it takes to be a successful leader in a CPG company today. I think the lessons here apply to many other industries as well - transformational leadership in tech isn't much different.

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Huge news in the alcohol distribution world: RNDC is EXITING California. Here's the quick overview and what it means for the industry 👇 RNDC is one of America's biggest wine and spirits distributors. They have historically been a nationwide powerhouse and worked with some of the biggest brands in the country. But, in the last few months, they've been dealt several massive blows in the form of "break ups" with some of their largest partners. Tito's, Sazerac, and Brown Forman (amongst others) all announced plans to change distributors.   California is also one of the largest markets in the country for the broader alcohol market, so naturally it was a disproportionately valuable state for RNDC. But, on the heels of the aforementioned supplier losses, RNDC made the somewhat shocking announcement that they would fully exit California. It's left lots of brands scrambling to replace their distributors in CA and reverberated around the industry. What does it mean? Well, it symbolizes the reality that the alcohol industry is in the midst of a shakeup. A majority of players in the industry have been running the same playbooks for the last several decades. For a while, they could get away with the lack of innovative thinking. But now, companies are forced to either adapt and go on offense, or fall behind. The booze business had a rough few years due to the COVID reset. News stories like the RNDC shut down are symptoms of this challenging few years. But, the industry is slowly finding its way back to growth mode. But in this next cycle of growth, I think there will be a clear bifurcation between the companies that truly go on offense and those that continue to rely on the playbooks of decades past. For suppliers, this likely means skating to where the puck is going and getting aggressive with M&A strategies to ensure portfolios match the next generation of drinkers. For retailers, this means leaning into creating a stronger in-store experience for customers which includes everything from customer service, to merchandising, pricing, promotion, and basic store hygiene. And for distributors, this means leaning into much stronger partnerships with suppliers, focusing on world-class execution, and being a true collaborator in building brands. The alcohol industry will continue to grow and there will always be massive opportunity for the people and companies that are willing to be aggressive and zig while others zag. Interesting times in the business... but I remain excited and optimistic through it all. Don't bet against booze! CC Top Shelf Ventures

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You can’t just show up with a deck and expect the market to get it. Especially in CPG. Everyone thinks there’s some magical benchmark: $1M in revenue? Series Seed. National retail? Time to raise your A. But the reality is a lot messier. We’ve seen plenty of great CPG brands—real traction, real velocity—get stuck. Why? Because they didn’t shape the story for investors. Fundraising isn’t about hitting some mythical number. It’s about increasing the perceived probability of unlocking a big outcome. And creating a mental model for how that happens. What does that mean in CPG? You’re not just selling a product. You’re selling distribution flywheels. Velocity growth. Gross margin expansion. Founders who know how to drive both brand and P&L. Most investors don't come from CPG. They don’t know what to look for—so you have to teach them. Educate them on what matters. Show them the path. De-risk it. We’ve watched too many founders spend 12+ months raising from angels and family offices after the VCs passed—not because the business wasn’t good, but because the story wasn’t clear. It’s not just about what you’ve built. It’s about how you help others see what you’re building.

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Conagra Brands earnings: noisy quarter, execution improving 📉 Revenue: Organic net sales down 3%, pressured by volume softness and retailer inventory timing 📊 Margins: Adjusted operating margin fell to 11.3% amid inflation and operating leverage headwinds ⚙️ Strategy: Investing in frozen & snacks, managing staples for cash, guidance reaffirmed for FY26 🗣️ Sean Connolly, CEO: “We are well positioned to return to organic net sales growth supported by a robust innovation pipeline, increased merchandising and A&P investment, and a resilient supply chain.” 🗣️ Dave Marberger, CFO: “As we mark the halfway point in the year, we’ve made solid progress against our objectives, and our first-half results were largely on track to our expectations.” ⬇️ Full breakdown linked in comments — follow Alphasumer for sharp, no-fluff insights on the consumer staples sector #CPG #FoodAndBeverage #Earnings #Stocks #ConsumerStaples 

🌱💲Affordability is a turning point. New data from ProVeg shows that a plant-based grocery basket is now about 5% cheaper than one with meat, dairy, or seafood across 7 of Germany’s 8 largest grocers — flipping last year’s price premium. That’s a major signal for mainstream adoption. Price signals + better product experiences compound over time. We expect more retailers to sharpen private label strategy, improve availability, and use pricing levers to grow share of plant-forward baskets. #altprotein #consumertrends #foodsystems #grocery Great reporting by Green Queen Media 🔗 https://lnkd.in/eTY9c9Tc

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"Too many teams treated AI as a task-elimination machine rather than a collaborative partner. When someone expects AI to remove 100% of their to-dos, disappointment is usually inevitable." As Karen Huh reflects in her Food Logistics piece, this is what we've heard from CPG teams, but we also deal with these same challenges on the software development side building Zucca. Aligning on the right balance today, both in terms of expectations and usage, is tough. That's partially because the technology is advancing so quickly. Still, we believe deeply that the train has left the station and we know where it's going. In software, that means human code writing (other than for pleasure) is quickly trending to zero. Yet, that does NOT mean we don't need software engineers who still use their brains. So how to figure out the right balance? We think it's continuous experimentation. If you're working on product development in CPG and curious about AI, reach out!

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30 Days After Launching a new CPG brand After 11 months of pre-launch prep, Tactical Snacks went live 30 days ago. The goal was: bring better-for-you, high-performance snacks to the tactical community. Before launch, we put in the work - some of the key things done: • Went through a 5-month CPG accelerator program • Built a 6,000+ email waitlist from scratch • Ran a preorder campaign to validate demand & make pre-sales • Attended multiple trade shows to meet buyers and build brand awareness via sampling • Seeded samples to 600+ influencers we worked with my legacy brands • Reactivated & warmed up 100,000 email subscribers from legacy brands into a content newsletter (scrubbed it down to 25K) • Locked in meetings with military/retail distribution reps (AAFES, MCX, CANEX) and set up a wholesale program for individual retailers & FFLs • Set up an affiliate program, and recruited 60+ affiliates; however they aren't driving sales yet • Got banned from TikTok Ads within 48 hours lol :) 30 days in: • Paid traffic is driving the majority of sales, but CAC is high and ROAS is low (below 1.0). • Subscriptions, however, are looking promising (~30% of orders) • Influencer seeding produced dozens of videos/posts—but barely moved the needle on conversions or even new followers • Email flows and campaigns to 40,000 subs aren’t converting - at all • Waitlist and newsletter leads haven’t bought despite nurturing • Shopify Conversion rate is under 1% • Amazon is driving 20% of sales (without any promotion) • Tariffs haven't had any effect yet (made in USA, baby!) - but may have second-order effects down the line We’re now: • A/B testing price sensitivity and more landing pages; doing CRO • Going to doing more cleansing, segmenting and reworking email flows • Repurposing influencer content into UGC ads • Reaching out to customers for testimonials & reviews • Trying to push sales velocity up without burning too much capital If you’ve gone through an early-stage CPG launch and cracked the code, I’d love to hear: What shifted your CAC from bleeding to breakeven? What actually worked with influencer content or micro-creators? How did you accelerate sales velocity to get retail-ready? Open to feedback, intros, lessons—the kind of advice you wish you got when it was still month one.

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PepsiCo Urgently Overhauling Portfolio Under Activist Pressure "PepsiCo Inc. said it is working to cut costs and overhaul its portfolio to meet consumers’ shifting tastes, while it engages in discussions with an activist investor. "PepsiCo said in prepared remarks Thursday that it has been cutting the number of its individual products to “reduce supply chain complexity” and will continue to drive that number lower. The company also said it has accelerated its cost-reduction efforts and that it expects more headcount reductions in its Frito-Lay US business before the end of the year." #pepsico #shareholdervalue #activistinvesting https://lnkd.in/gTc9PtQe

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Convenience stores represent 45% of all SNAP retailers. These stores serve as critical access points in rural and urban areas where grocery stores may be 40+ miles away. New requirements could force thousands of convenience stores out of the SNAP program, threatening food access for low-income Americans. See more details from Convenience Leaders Vision Group

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Deductions are one of the most painful and invisible problems in CPG — often eating up 30% of a brand’s gross revenue through a mix of compliance issues, chargebacks, and hard-to-audit claims. Most brands treat it as the cost of doing business. Glimpse is helping them change that. We just partnered w/ them for their Series A as they build an AI-native deductions analyst - a system that ingests unstructured data from retailer/distributor portals, ERPs, emails, and PDFs, then automates the full workflow to validate, dispute, and reconcile deductions at scale. It’s one of those rare AI applications where the ROI is immediate and the underlying infra unlocks much more. What starts as deductions can grow into a broader retail operations platform with real reach across finance, sales, and forecasting. Excited to work with Akash Raju, Anuj Mehta, and Kushal Negi as they build something category-defining.

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