Jordan Greene

As brands and agencies brace for economic volatility, proactive steps are essential for ensuring media investments remain effective. From scenario planning and prioritizing transparency to competitive intelligence, it’s vital to prepare for varying economic conditions. Historical insights show that brands maintaining advertising spending fare better and recover faster. Marketing leaders must keep tone sensitivity in mind as consumers become more deliberate about spending. Adaptation is key. #MarketingStrategy #EconomicUncertainty #Advertising #BrandGrowth #MediaInvestments #Leadership #ScenarioPlanning

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we've posted a couple of reports in the past - but I think that this one is the BEST and most interesting one we published (...so far...) this is a true comparison of "attribution" vs. incrementality - comparing the actual aggregated, weighted, and indexed results based for the clients who share attribution data with INCRMNTAL Super interesting - get it below!

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With principle-based buying returning to the forefront, Brian Chap's recipe for agency accountability takes me back to Jon Mandel's explosive rebate disclosures back in March 2015. Jon's kimono-opening moment was undoubtedly the catalyst that woke us all up to the billions leaking from media budgets by way of non-transparent kickbacks and fees. The can of worms has yet to be closed. That's why principle-based buying doesn't sit well with me. It feels like we're rewinding the tape after making so much progress over the last decade. BUT ... if you're a client-side media buyer that chooses to engage with a principle-based agency, there are three of Brian's "BENCH" framework activities that I think should be prioritized to the top. These three are relatively simple to do and can dramatically increase transparency and accountability. 1 - Secure platform access to your ad server, your DSP and the major SSPs through whom you are buying. Ensure you know how to compare media costs at each step in the supply-chain. 2 - Conduct audits. Whether as Brian recommends or simply by contacting a handful of publishers where you buy media, you should be able to reconcile your cost input to your media value output. And while you're at it, you'll be strengthening your direct publisher relationships, which has many longer-term benefits both in terms of media cost and priority. 3 - Most definitely hold your agency accountable. This applies also to every adtech vendor in your media supply-chain. I am not a fan of principle-based media buying. But if you're going to try it out, you need to remember that this is far from a set-it-and-forget-it approach to advertising. https://lnkd.in/eDw-Z3w8

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FTC Drops Antitrust Case Against Omnicom Group Last week the FTC dropped their #antitrust objection to Omnicom Media Group acquiring Interpublic Group (IPG), a tacit acknowledgment that the two companies, combined, are operating in a highly competitive market and should be allowed to pair. To put this into perspective: The top four agencies, while very large on their own, WPP, Omnicom Media Group, Publicis Groupe, and Interpublic Group (IPG) had total revenue in 2024 less than Google’s Q1 2025 quarterly revenue (respectively $59.3B vs $66.9B). Years ago companies like Google and Meta were not competitive to agencies. But today it would be fair to say the largest tech companies are trying to encroach on what an agency does. Meta, for example, recently announced a new suite of AI-powered tools in Facebook to make ad creation simpler and sophisticated. The Wall Street Journal wrote in June: "Meta Aims to Fully Automate Ad Creation Using AI" and Joanna Stern showed just how far AI is come. Sir Martin Sorrell - WPP alum and CEO of S4 Capital Group (Monks) - spoke with journalists Mike Bird and Ethan Wu from The Economist last week and commented - bluntly - on the likely contractions coming to agencies due to #AI ("Robo-Copy - Will AI eat the ad industry?").  While he noted that AI will be an opportunity for agencies, he also shared “I think the impact on employment is going to be significant.” “I think the changes are as significant clearly as the internet or smartphone, probably more so.”  Given these emerging changes in competition for agencies, more #consolidation is likely to come - and should be allowed to happen.  #Agencies should have the freedom to innovate, acquire, and invest as needed to compete.

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Excellent chart. This is one of those numbers that belies a more tectonic shift. And 26% year over year is nothing to sneeze at. But ad revenue alone is a signifier - most creators won't see that money unless they are in top .1% of pods. The shift of money following the attention economy is real. From Netflix touting podcasts, to Spotify emphasizing video, to the utter dominance of YouTube. For smaller creators and our clients, we are trying everything we can do well these days (emphasis on the DO WELL). We also advise subscriptions or newsletters (Substack, Intuit, Mailchimp, Simplecast by AdsWizz, Apple podcasts) are a worthwhile investment to keep more of that attention premium in your pocket. #podcast #revenue

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Strange economic times call for brave leadership This report from WARC (World Advertising Research Center) offers some compelling data for brands that want to maintain their focus on long term growth during times of uncertainty. The research correlates strongly with what we have seen when changes in leadership shift a client from an active marketing mindset to a short-term cost management approach. We have seen first hand how a reduction in market presence and marketing innovation may produce short-term budget wins, but they are followed by growth challenges and loss of market share. https://lnkd.in/gje_p6NS

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Michel Lacaille of Mediaclip writes about why Q5 and Early Q1 (December 26 through early March) represent a prime opportunity to convert holiday buyers into repeat customers, with lower competition, warmer audiences, and emotionally-driven use cases. https://ow.ly/Ytmi50YnzlH

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Audio represents 20%+ of consumer media time but under 5% of ad spend (eMarketer). For pharma brands focused on reach, frequency, and trust, this unlocks smarter investment without sacrificing accountability. "Viant Technology’s direct integration with iHeartMedia... allows both companies to match their data graphs and create shared IDs for targeting audiences in digital audio, as well as broadcast radio, where audience ID signals are scarce." Net-net: we're making hard to measure channels measurable and heping healthcare marketers better understand who they’re reaching, how often, and how audio fits into the full patient and HCP journey. Audio has always driven impact. Now, with Viant, it drives insight too. #HealthcareMarketing #PharmaMarketing #Viant #Programmatic #AddressableAdvertising #MeasurableMedia #AudioAds https://lnkd.in/ek8J-iJE

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Happy to help our partners at Amazon with this measurement initiative. Proof that real purchase data, not modeled proxies, is what closes the gap between streaming exposure and verified sales outcomes.

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RETHINKING TV REACH ESTIMATES As we do more runs using our new TV AD Cume facility, which estimates the reach/frequency of national TV ad campaigns based on the TV rating's "commercial minute viewing" numbers and, separately, on ad attentiveness, it is becoming painfully obvious that advertisers are not getting the coverage they think they are paying for, Despite rating fragmentation it is still possible to "reach" about 70% of a target group per month if you spend enough and use both linear TV and streaming. But when you factor in ad attentiveness---counting only those who see at least two seconds of any of your commercials, you are hard pressed to get to the 50% mark--except for older adults. And the same point applies to frequency. If you think that your target group reach is "seeing" 5-6 of your commercials per month think again--the real number is more like 2-3, not 5-6. Which raises another question--why monthly reach? Most ad campaigns for a given product positioning strategy last three years or longer--not 30 days. How did we decide that monthly reach was a meaningful time frame for evaluating reach or frequency? The answer may surprise some. Here it is. When advertisers and agencies first went to Nielsen and inquired about their total reach--not just the ratings of a particular telecast----Nielsen's panel had only 1,000 homes and to get a sample that reflected an extended time frame--a week or a month or longer, Nielsen needed a "unified" sample of homes that supplied data for every day in that period. As many homes dropped in and out due to the Audimeter's mechanical failings or, more commonly in those days, due to their one set blowing a tube, Nielsen settled on four weeks as the maximum duration as that would guarantee a sample of about 500 homes--beyond that it would have severe sample size issues. So four-week reach/frequency was established as the industry's media planning time frame but it had nothing to do with marketing or advertising, it was simply a dictate caused by Nielsen's then small panel size. But times have changed and maybe it's time for media planners to start showing clients what their proposed plans look like on a more dynamic basis--weekly, plus monthly,plus quarterly, and then yearly--not just an average month. That way the brand manager and CMO can see how their ad campaign really develops its reach across time. As for the numbers, themselves, isn't it also about time that they reflected ad attentiveness? If you ask the agencies about ad attentiveness most will claim that they "consider it" in devising their recommendations to clients, but how many media plans actually show clients what their ad attentiveness reach/frequencies might be and how many present reasonable alternatives for consideration based on these findings? The answer, I'm sorry to say is not many. Any thoughts about how we can change this, guys and gals?

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Excited to share that Aperiam has invested in Bedrock Platform. Obvious statement of the century: programmatic advertising has a complexity problem. The infrastructure that was built to give media buyers control has, over time, done the opposite. Burying teams under layers of operational overhead, legacy tooling, and opaque supply chains. Bedrock is built on a simple but powerful thesis: what if you stripped away the bloat and rebuilt the stack around what actually matters... precision, transparency, and speed to execution. Their platform combines AI-driven campaign automation with curated, premium inventory across video, CTV, DOOH, and audio, and aims to be flexible and get smarter over time. Plus, the team (Shane, Austin, Ryan, James) has deep roots in the infrastructure layer of ad tech and understands the plumbing better than almost anyone. We believe the next generation of programmatic will be leaner, faster and AI-first. Bedrock is building that.

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This week's column brings up a somewhat controversial concept. The TV broadcasting industry is rapidly evolving into a streaming/addressable/targeted marketplace. Yet 75%-80% of broadcast TV viewing.....content on broadcast TV channels is still being viewed either via OTA or on pay TV. How can broadcasters make the transition to enable the scale of their viewing audiences to participate in the new TV marketplace? It won't be easy in an industry that eschews change. Broadcasters and agencies have been talking about this for years. It's time now to make the transition or get left behind! https://lnkd.in/gqZd4A9i

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John Fix: Underspending Generates Weak ROI In Media Mix Modeling And The Benefits Of Moving To An Optimization Mindset Of “Did This Execution Of AM/FM Radio Work” * Response curves depict the impact of varying levels of media investment to sales response and ROI: Underspending generates weak ROI. * ROI varies by investment level. One snapshot of ROI does not tell the whole story: As-run data of actual deliveries have significant variation. * Response curves tell a richer ROI story of varying levels of investment: As impressions increase, reach increases, and users are exposed to multiple impressions. Because reach builds as a curve and frequency is assumed to influence consumers, there is an expectation that sales will correspond. * Media Mix Modeling can be used to optimize within the AM/FM radio campaign to achieve the best performance. Via the link below is John Fix's full report:

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👀 HawkTalk- "Voices of Innovation" Current US Programmatic Trends- via DataBeat May 2025 saw overall CPMs rise 4% month-over-month, with display CPMs up 1.7% and video CPMs up 9.5%. Year-over-year, CPMs declined 24.8%, driven by a 31.9% drop in display while video remained flat (+0.9%). The dip reflects post-election normalization in political ad spend and continued macroeconomic uncertainty. Chinese advertisers, once major drivers of programmatic growth, showed reduced activity amid shifting policies and market conditions. 💥 PUBLISHERS must read->> Ad refresh strategies were in focus this month. First impressions commanded the highest CPMs ($2.81) and CTRs (0.41%), but each subsequent refresh delivered diminishing returns. While viewability improved from 78% to 96% across 20 refreshes, CPMs dropped 70% and CTRs flattened. Advertisers significantly discount repeated exposures, signaling reduced user attention and lower engagement. 💰 To adapt, publishers should limit excessive refreshes, optimize floors dynamically, and diversify demand sources. Leveraging header bidding and testing direct deals or high-impact formats will be key to offsetting market softness and maintaining monetization. CPM Trends: MoM Growth: Display CPMs ↑1.7%, Video CPMs ↑9.5%, Overall CPM ↑4% YoY Change: Display CPMs ↓31.9%, Video CPMs ↑0.9%, Overall CPM ↓24.8% CC: Ashok Ganapam Hawk Digital Paris Noel #publishers #digital #monetization #adtech

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If you are a Performance/Growth Marketer testing or looking to test CTV, this article is a must read. CTV inventory is primarily non-clickable so the industry relies on Cross Device to connect the device visiting the website to the TV in which the ad was served (and vice versa). Here's the problem - most CTV vendors use IP Address (Wifi) as the sole source of truth for cross device tracking. This is both antiquated and heavily flawed, but they do it anyway and hey, it certainly doesn't hurt in-platform performance. Data validation provider Truthset conducted this study on behalf of CIMM (Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement) and Go Addressable to definitively understand the accuracy of IP Address for Cross Device tracking applications (CTV). "Truthset analyzed records from six major data vendors, including 1 billion email addresses, nearly 250 million IP addresses and 164 million postal addresses." Here are some key findings: > IP-to-Email matches: 16% accurate >IP-to-Postal matches: 13% accurate If you are a brand allocating ad dollars to a CTV campaign leveraging IP Address for cross device tracking/targeting, is this accuracy acceptable? “There’s this promise in the industry of completely accurate, deterministic data that matches sophisticated and vast advertising targets and attributes onto individuals and households,” Jon Watts, Managjng Director of Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement (CIMM) said. “This leads marketers to believe that when they buy against a particular target, they’re reaching that target – and, unsurprisingly, the truth is much more complicated than that.” IP Address Match Rates Are a Joke – And It’s No Laughing Matter https://lnkd.in/gwGa_iBt Keynes Digital #crossdevice #CTV #connectedtv

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CMO’s and agencies are so enamored with bottom-funnel targeting tactics that they totally lost the ability to move people effectively—their judgement is out of balance with real needs today. The targeting down funnel ‘disease’ gives marketers a feeling that they aren’t being wasteful but so much is showing they aren’t being effective either. “This ….reveals …a fundamental mismatch. Respondents are applying bottom-of-funnel tactics to what they've identified as top-of-funnel brand building objectives.”

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Drew Cashmore, head of strategy at Vantage and one of the original architects behind Walmart Connect, shares insight on the role alignment plays for those in the #digital #media industry and all those tapping digital media for business strategies. https://lnkd.in/eJftSnDM

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I got quoted in Skai 2026 State of Retail Media report this week - this one is all about measurement. According to Skai, only 15% of brands say they're highly effective at measuring retail media performance. From all my conversations... that sounds about right. But the tools are out there, and the agencies to support you are out there (hint... we do this extremely well). It's not because the tools or the knowledge don't exist. It's not because the methodology is too complex. It's not even a data access problem. The real barrier? People and ownership. 56% said they lack internal analytics or data science resources. Nearly 1 in 5 said there's no clear cross-functional ownership between sales, media, and analytics. In my opinion lack of analytics access is the excuse. Lack of ownership is the problem. I stand by that. Here's what I see constantly with brands: the retail media budget grows, the channel count grows, the retailer portals multiply and the analytics infrastructure stays exactly the same. We keep pouring spending into the machine and then wonder why we can't explain what it's doing. And the incrementality gap is brutal. 75% of brands say incrementality measurement is their #1 challenge. But only 20% are actually good at both measuring AND applying those insights to decisions. Everyone knows it's the north star. Almost no one has operationalized it. The aspirations vs. reality data were the most telling part of the whole report. Brands hope incrementality will unlock profit margin improvements (68% said so). Only 24% have actually achieved that. That gap isn't a measurement problem. It's an organizational design problem. If you're a Head of #eCommerce staring down a budget conversation right now, here's the honest takeaway: You don't need another dashboard. You need to invest in this and give authority to someone who owns #incrementality end to end, standardize definitions your media, finance, and analytics teams all agree on, and a decision cadence that actually changes what you do next. As always, I'm here to help. DM me with any questions.

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