CEOs signal low-hire, low-fire market in 2026 amid AI influence

We are officially in a low-hire, low-fire labor market. According to recent C-suite sentiment and Conference Board signals: • CEOs are not planning major workforce expansions in 2026. • Layoffs remain cautious. • Economic uncertainty persists. • AI is shaping workforce decisions. • Talent scarcity is still real. But here’s the deeper signal: This isn’t a contraction phase. It’s a strategic recalibration phase.

🚀 Gartner Reveals the Top HR Trends Set to Shape Australia’s Workforce in 2026 At the Gartner HR Symposium in Sydney, analysts unpacked the big forces reshaping how organisations will lead, transform and support their people next year: 2026 will be a pivotal year for HR. Here are the four trends every HR leader should have on their radar: 1️⃣ AI Is Redefining HR - FAST - AI adoption has exploded, with Gartner predicting that half of today’s HR tasks will be automated or AI‑supported by 2030. - HR functions are already feeling the shift, as CEOs, CFOs and CHROs all ask how AI will change HR’s role, cost base and strategic impact. 💡 The takeaway: HR needs its own AI strategy, one that reimagines work, processes and skills, not just tech adoption. 2️⃣ AI Is Becoming a Real Alternative to Talent In the past year alone: - 27% of organisations redesigned roles or skills because of AI - 24% redeployed employees due to tech‑driven redundancy - 10% have already replaced some roles with automation - This shift is pushing leaders to rethink how work gets done — and what work must remain human. 💡 The takeaway: CHROs need a “now‑next” talent plan that strengthens today’s workforce while preparing for tomorrow’s AI‑integrated roles. 3️⃣ The Growth vs. Efficiency Tightrope Gets Tighter - Leaders are under pressure to deliver growth and cut costs simultaneously. Yet 64% of CHROs say their leaders lack the mindset to lead change effectively. 💡 The takeaway: Change must be treated as an ongoing business discipline. HR’s role is to build leaders who can guide teams through constant transformation. 4️⃣ The Employment Deal Is Shifting — And Employees Feel It - Gartner reports a clear trend: organisations are expecting more from employees while offering less — more hours, more change, heavier workloads, but reduced flexibility and investment in culture. - Only 47% of CHROs believe their culture actually drives performance. 💡 The takeaway: CHROs must reshape the employee value proposition so it still attracts and retains talent in a high‑demand, low‑support environment. ✨ The Big Picture 2026 offers HR leaders both challenge and opportunity: ➡️ Lead AI transformation ➡️ Redesign work and talent strategies ➡️ Build resilient leaders ➡️ Rebuild the employee value proposition As Gartner’s Aaron McEwan reminded us, this is a year to reset priorities and equip teams for what’s next.

HR is at a crossroads—and many departments are struggling to keep up with the realities of today’s workforce, technology, and business pressures. I’ve spent years helping HR teams navigate AI disruption, workforce restructuring, and M&A transitions. What I’m seeing across industries is a widening gap between what senior leadership needs and what HR is delivering. Too often, HR isn’t presenting options that increase revenue, reduce expenses, or protect organizational value. Recruitment is a prime example. Expectations of younger workers are misunderstood, AI tools are being used to “coach” or even “game” interviews, and hiring decisions are being made without a clear understanding of long‑term fit or cost impact. Recently, I worked with an organization preparing to lay off 1,100 employees due to AI automation. By conducting a full workforce impact assessment and aligning talent with revenue‑producing or cost‑neutral roles, we were able to place 800 employees into new positions—preserving jobs and protecting the bottom line. This is the kind of strategic thinking HR should be driving. Another major challenge is turnover, especially in retail banking. Many HR teams are prioritizing “new blood” over mature, stable workers who bring reliability and loyalty. At the same time, communication between HR and senior leadership is often fragmented, leaving employees without clear expectations or meaningful motivation. One retail organization I supported had a turnover rate near 45%. By restructuring hiring practices and aligning roles with actual business needs, we reduced that to 19%. Across the board, I’m also seeing a reluctance to hire part‑time talent—even when part‑time staffing would reduce costs, increase flexibility, and improve retention. It’s another sign of the disconnect between HR practices and business realities. The bottom line: HR must evolve from a reactive function to a strategic partner. The organizations that make this shift will thrive. The ones that don’t will continue to struggle with turnover, disengagement, and unnecessary expense.

People still think HR Business Partners are just the "HR spin doctors" or "people people with a fancy title." 🤔 Wrong. HRBPs are hidden CEOs in disguise. They think like owners, act like strategists, and influence decisions long before problems get loud. 🚀 If HR isn't driving real business results, it's just busywork. Filling seats. Saying "we're doing HR stuff" without actually impacting the company. That's not HR. That's HR tokenism. ❌ Real HRBPs speak the language of business. They understand P&L, market shifts, and competitive advantage. They make decisions that matter. Here's the truth: they impact six core areas. If they don't, they're just taking up space: - Aligning people with strategic goals (not just job descriptions) - Building organizational structures that scale and adapt - Creating talent pipelines that actually produce leaders, not just fill roles - Driving performance and engagement that stick - Coaching leaders to be better, shaping company culture by design - Managing change, risk, and workforce stability without breaking a sweat If your HR team isn't doing these? You don't have an HRBP. You have HR support staff with titles. The smartest companies want HR folks who are: - Financially savvy, not just "people skills" - Data-driven, not just gut feelings - Bold enough to challenge leadership without fear - Skilled at navigating complexity with systems thinking - Trusted by executives as true partners - Understanding how AI and tech transform work Tomorrow's HR is results-based. Not effort-based. If your HR leaders aren't delivering measurable impact, they're just "seat fillers." It's time to get serious. To redefine what HR can be. To build teams that actually move the needle. So here's the question: Are your HR leaders ready for that shift? Or are they still trying to catch up? The future belongs to HR that drives results. Not excuses. The key to winning? Stop doing HR the way everyone else does. Start doing HR that matters. 💼 And if you're not sure where to begin? Let's talk. Because the clock's ticking, and the ones who act now will lead tomorrow. When HR speaks the language of business, HR earns its seat at the table. The question is: are you prepared?

I've seen a few posts like this and wanted to highlight people I've learned a lot from. Here are 16 HR and recruiting voices worth following on LinkedIn: 1. Amy Mencarelli, PHR, MBA Shares grounded, operator-level HR leadership insights focused on business impact and org design. Strong at translating HR work into language that executives actually care about. 2. Tracie Sponenberg Former CPO at The Granite Group, now fractional executive focused on deskless and frontline workers in manufacturing and distribution. Writes about AI in HR, wellbeing, and what people-first looks like in industries that still run on paper. 3. Adriano Herdman Writes candid, experience-driven content on recruiting strategy, hiring precision, and TA maturity, especially in startups and high-growth environments. 4. Michael Brown Writes about building AI-native recruiting operations, global hiring at scale, and treating talent acquisition like a product. 5. Alex Seiler Fractional CPO who has operated across startups, mid-market, and Fortune 500s. Writes about strategic people leadership, org transformation, and scaling via people. 6. Ben Eubanks Research-led voice on HR technology, learning, and workforce trends. 7. Keri Ohlrich, PhD Co-founder of Abbracci Group and co-author of The Way of the HR Warrior. Writes about leadership development, culture, and what it means to show up as a real HR practitioner. 8. Lars Schmidt Advocates for human-centered HR, ethical leadership, and modern people practices. Blends culture, leadership, and HR transformation with a strong values-driven perspective. 9. Daniel Space Breaks down how companies actually make decisions on hiring, pay, and promotions in plain language most HR pros won't say out loud. 10. Hung Lee Acts as a signal filter for recruiters by curating trends, tools, experiments, and labor market shifts. Great follow for staying current without drowning in recruiting noise. 11. Hailey George, MBA Fractional Head of HR for small businesses and founder-led teams. Writes about practical people systems, compliance, and building HR infrastructure without the enterprise overhead. 12. Stacy Donovan Zapar Shares practical guidance on how companies attract talent authentically, not just through perks or slogans. 13. Cammas Freeman Shares recruiting strategy that blends AI tools with a human-first approach to hard-to-fill roles. 14. Kieran Snyder Data-first thinker on AI transformation, performance management, feedback systems, and people analytics. 15. Kyle Lagunas Primary researcher and analyst focused on talent transformation, technology strategy, and the future of work. Writes about what leading organizations are doing differently, backed by data rather than opinion. 16. Hannah Morgan Bridges the gap between recruiters and job seekers with practical advice on hiring, job search strategy, and career navigation rooted in real recruiting experience. Who would you add?

Performance & Strategic Growth #Building career capital and organizational impact# —---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note 8  |  What High-Performing HR Departments Do Differently Objectives This note aims to help you: 1. Identify the five characteristics that distinguish high-performing HR from transactional HR 2. Understand the shift from HR as a cost center to HR as a strategic business partner 3. Build the capabilities (data literacy, business acumen, strategic communication) required of modern HR leaders. High-performing HR departments are not defined simply by how efficiently they carry out routine tasks; they are distinguished by a fundamentally different perspective on their role within the organization. Instead of operating primarily as an administrative support unit, they actively participate in strategic decision-making and contribute to shaping the organization’s direction. These HR teams rely on data and insight to anticipate challenges, guide workforce planning, and prevent issues before they arise, rather than only documenting or reacting to past events. They also play a central role in cultivating workplace cultures that attract, develop, and retain exceptional talent. In addition, effective HR functions focus on empowering managers to lead successfully, rather than attempting to manage people-related issues in isolation. By strengthening leadership capability across the organization, they help create more resilient and productive teams. Most importantly, high-performing HR departments measure their success through tangible business outcomes such as improved retention, increased productivity, and stronger organizational performance, rather than limiting their evaluation to internal HR activity metrics. Personal Activities For HR Professionals 1.  Rate your current HR function on five dimensions from transactional to strategic 2.  Practice presenting an HR initiative in terms of business outcomes rather than HR activities 3.  Research one HR practice from a recognized high-performing organization and identify one transferable lesson Feel free to share your results with us in the comment section. Enobong Peters —------------------------

HR has spent years working toward a more strategic role. What feels different now is that the conversation has shifted from whether HR belongs in business decisions to what it does with that responsibility. The seat at the table was never really the destination. The real work begins once you’re there. Organizations are recognizing, in very practical terms, that people decisions are business decisions. Growth plans depend on capabilities that may not yet exist. Transformation succeeds or stalls based on whether the organization can absorb change without losing momentum. Even the strongest strategy struggles when the structure underneath it cannot support execution That reality has expanded the definition of effective HR. The work is less about programs and more about understanding how the business actually functions. Where decisions slow down. Where roles and accountabilities overlap. Where clarity exists in one part of the organization and confusion exists in another. The role also asks more of HR than it once did. It requires comfort with business tradeoffs. It calls for engaging deeply with technology while protecting the human experience. It means asking harder questions and offering answers that are sometimes less comfortable but more honest. None of this makes the work simpler. If anything, it makes it more demanding. The challenges rarely have clean edges, and progress is often gradual and not immediately visible. That is what makes it meaningful. The greatest value emerges in the ability to hold both the operational reality and the strategic horizon simultaneously. That is where HR moves from being present in the business to helping the business perform.

HR executives everywhere have the same message: Human Resources is changing, and leaders must change along with it.    In 2026, the HR field will continue to innovate, expand, and adapt to meet an evolving world. Top experts in the field, like the ones featured in the article below, believe that HR plays a key role, but our ability to step into that role will depend on many factors. We must consider:    ✅ How technology, including AI, can play an intentional role in growth and productivity, and how HR specifically can provide the right tools to make transitions easy    ✅ How our workplace cultures can grow to become healthier and more productive, while putting organization-wide values at the center    ✅ How we can keep HR human-centric and focused on team empowerment, even when times are difficult or uncertain shifts are ahead    ✅ How HR itself can grow to meet new needs and face new challenges, without losing sight of what really matters    ✅ How to meet – or exceed – expectations in a new year, where HR is more relevant than ever before    I love the insights shared here, and the reminders of what HR leaders can achieve when we strive for great things: https://lnkd.in/ei5Cy7cA    #HR #HRExecutive #HRLeadership #HRManagement #HumanResources #WorkplaceLeadership

HR analytics - the transformative language enabling HR professionals so sit on a decision making table - has a great impact on organizational decision making. Often called people analytics— HR analytics refers to the use of data, statistical methods, and technology to understand, predict, and improve workforce-related outcomes. Its impact on organizational decision-making is significant and continues to grow as companies rely more on data-driven strategies. It's impact includes:- 1. Shifting from Intuition to Data-Driven Decisions by providing evidence-based insights; reducing bias in hiring, promotions, and performance evaluations as well as enabling leaders to justify decisions with measurable data e.g. Instead of guessing why employees leave, analytics identifies exact turnover drivers (e.g., low engagement, poor management, compensation gaps). 2. Improving Talent Acquisition by identifying best-performing candidate profiles; predicting candidate success and cultural fit; reducing time-to-hire and cost-per-hire. This can help organizations can prioritize candidates who statistically perform better, improving hiring quality. 3. Enhancing Employee Performance Management by monitoring productivity trends; identifying high performers and underperformers and linking performance to training and development needs. This enables managers can make objective decisions about promotions, rewards, and training investments. 4. Better Employee Retention: Predictive models identify employees at risk of leaving hence helping organizations to save costs associated with recruitment and training new employees. 5. Strategic Workforce Planning enabling leaders to plan hiring, reskilling, or restructuring based on future organizational needs. 6. Increased Operational Efficiency thus helping HR teams to focus more on strategic roles rather than administrative tasks. 7. Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Analytics hence helping organizations to track diversity metrics, identify bias in hiring or promotions and measure effectiveness of inclusion initiatives leading to fairer and more inclusive decision-making. 8. Financial Impact and ROI Measurement helping to link people decisions to business outcomes hence enabling HR to become a strategic partner rather than a support function. Despite the impacts a few Challenges to Consider include data privacy and ethical concerns; poor data quality or integration issues; lack of analytical skills in HR teams; resistance to change within organizations In conclusion HR analytics transforms organizational decision-making by making it more accurate, strategic, and proactive. It empowers leaders to base decisions on data rather than assumptions, leading to better talent management, improved performance, and stronger business outcomes.

Everyone's talking about AI in HR. Recruiting tools. Engagement surveys. Performance dashboards. All useful. None of them touch the problem that actually keeps HR leaders up at night. Employee relations. ER expertise is concentrated. A handful of senior specialists covering a global organisation across multiple jurisdictions and employment frameworks. The traditional model says you need expert coverage in every market. That's expensive, slow to build, and still doesn't solve the consistency problem — because local decisions drift. What that creates: ER quality that varies by geography. Risk accumulating in locations furthest from your centre of expertise. Senior ER professionals consumed by situations they shouldn't need to touch. A resourcing model that scales with headcount, not with need. This is where AI can unlock something significant — and almost nobody is building for it. Not recruitment efficiency. Not survey automation. Risk. Consistency. Global ER coverage without the global ER headcount. GlobalERGuide delivers this through three integrated capabilities: ER Advisory Suite — jurisdiction-aware case assessment, risk analysis calibrated to your organisation's context, and an AI critique-and-refine loop producing final case communications. A senior ER advisor in every jurisdiction — without the headcount. Manager ER Coach — conversational, jurisdiction-aware coaching for front-line managers through performance, conduct, absence, and grievance situations. Earlier interventions. Fewer escalations. Country Intelligence — proactive jurisdiction research before issues arise. Employer obligations, thresholds, pitfalls, and legislative changes — with direct generation of briefing notes, checklists, and board-ready summaries. Every output calibrated to your organisation's risk appetite and context. Globally deployed, locally calibrated, organisationally consistent. AI in HR has chased volume — recruitment, surveys, analytics. The highest-consequence work, where regulatory exposure, cultural risk, and organisational integrity actually live, has remained largely unsupported. Until now. Full platform overview in the deck below. Happy to walk through a scenario relevant to your organisation.