We held the inaugural Kalshi Research Conference last week in NYC. This conference was the first-ever research gathering built around a large scale and liquid prediction market. Large institutions, researchers and traders came together around a single question: how do markets tell us what comes next? For years, work in this space was constrained by thin markets, regulatory uncertainty, and purely academic environments. Now there is a live system producing continuous, high-frequency signal that researchers and institutions can actually use and build around. There is still a lot of open work. How should these markets be interpreted? Where are they most reliable? When are they least reliable? How do they integrate into decision-making at scale? How will the accelerating institutional adoption shape them and change crowd belief? Why is Main Street outperforming Wall Street? These questions were debated directly on stage by the people on the frontline, who are trading, building, and studying prediction markets. But the direction of travel is clear. The infrastructure now exists, and institutions are starting to organize around it. Huge thank you to Nicole Kagan and Jake Khorozian for bringing this event together. I can't wait for the next one.
This is a strong signal of maturity. Prediction markets are no longer just being traded, they are now being studied, interpreted and built around as real infrastructure.
👏👏👏💯💯💯🚀📌✅️🙏🌐
a research conference specifically for prediction markets would've sounded crazy two years ago. the fact that institutions showed up says everything
The integration of prediction market data into large-scale decision-making is one of the most interesting frontiers in finance right now. It will be fascinating to see how institutional adoption further stabilizes these signals. Congrats on a successful inaugural conference!
Year 1 🚀
Now this is a talk I’d actually want to sit in for When upload?
Kalshi is coming to Brasil. Fellow brazilian researchers need an opportunity to contribute and grow with Kalshi. Something to think about Luana Lopes Lara , Tarek Mansour and Nicole Kagan 🙂
Tarek Mansour, this inaugural conference marks a critical pivot from academic theory to institutional execution. While the industry debates interpretation, we are focused on the Market Microstructure required to handle high-frequency signals. We are currently finalizing our NBA/MLB Proof-of-Concept, targeting a 54% Hit Rate as our baseline for institutional viability. The challenge isn't just 'predicting'—it's executing with sub-100ms latency on a Go/gRPC backbone to ensure 'Alpha' isn't lost to stochastic noise. I’m interested in stress-testing our execution layer against Kalshi’s liquid engine. Let's prove how deterministic these markets can actually become. 🚀