I believe there is a very loud narrative right now coming from the CEOs of major AI companies.
The message is bold: within 18 months, legal, accounting and operational roles will be largely obsolete. That message is not aimed at operators. It is aimed at investors. Investors need timelines. They need a clean ROI story. They need acceleration.
We have seen this pattern before. Facebook has reportedly taken on close to 100 billion dollars in loans to fund AI data centre buildouts. When that level of capital is deployed, the growth narrative has to justify it.
At the same time, powerful AI models are being distributed at very low cost, with open source alternatives everywhere. Adoption is accelerating fast.
In my early usage, I have seen how impressive these systems are. They compress hours into minutes. They structure thinking. They increase output dramatically.
But they lack context. They lack judgment. They lack accountability.
The bigger issue is structural risk. If CEOs build their operational stack on external AI models they do not control, they embed a third party at the core of their cost base. Capital goes into integration and infrastructure, while the commercial model sits outside their control.
Today pricing is attractive because adoption is the priority.
Tomorrow, that changes. Most AI pricing is usage based. The more successful you are, the more you consume. As dependency rises, switching costs rise. Enterprise tiers, reliability premiums and upgrades create pricing resets. Margins get squeezed while leverage declines. That is not just technology risk. It is balance sheet risk. If experienced operators are removed at the same time, organisations become efficient but fragile.
The pattern feels familiar.
In the dot com bubble of the late 90s, capital flooded into infrastructure on the promise of transformation. The technology was real. The shift was real. But expectations ran ahead of economic reality. AI is transformative. The productivity gains are real. But capital intensity, aggressive timelines and uniform adoption curves are signals we have seen before.
I believe AI will massively accelerate productivity. I do not believe it will replace every legal, accounting and operational role in 18 months.
The sustainable path is augmentation, not replacement.
The strongest outcomes I see come from experienced operators using AI as leverage.
AI is a powerful accelerant.
But durable advantage still comes from experience, adaptability and sound decision making.
Intuit•289 followers
1moI think what he is saying here is Intuit needs to convince its customers and stockholders that they will always need to use the end Product, i.e. AI TurboTax. Don't conflate AI Infrastructure investing with the delivery of the Service.