Thomas Kiely

THE 2026 ALCOHOL “TRENDS” LIST IS OUT — HERE’S WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS Forbes’ annual look at U.S. alcohol trends for 2026 outlines familiar but important forces shaping the market: moderation continuing to normalize, premium spirits holding relevance but facing more scrutiny, ongoing growth in RTDs and spirits-adjacent formats, and increasing overlap across beer, wine, spirits, NA, and adjacent categories. The article also notes a more price-conscious consumer, fewer impulse purchases, and a broader shift toward value and intentional choice as shelves and menus continue to converge into a wider “adult beverage” set. Those signals matter — but not for the reasons trend lists usually suggest. Every year, the headlines focus on what’s new: new formats, new categories, new buzzwords. What tends to get lost is what actually drives decisions once someone is standing at a shelf, a bar, or scrolling on their phone. Most drinkers don’t follow trends. They follow occasions. What keeps showing up beneath all the predictions: People want clarity, not complexity They want drinks that fit a moment, not a manifesto They’re choosing with context and convenience, not tasting notes And they’re still gathering — just differently than before Yes, moderation is real. Yes, RTDs and adjacencies keep evolving. Yes, price sensitivity matters more than it did five years ago. But none of that replaces the core truth of this industry: The drink is the handshake. The moment is the reason. As categories blur, competition shifts. Bottles aren’t just competing within their segment anymore — they’re competing against anything else that promises a similar feeling, pace, or experience. That’s why 2026 looks less like a breakout year and more like a sorting year. The brands and venues that win won’t be the ones chasing every trend. They’ll be the ones that help people answer a simple question faster: What should I drink right now, for this moment — and why will I enjoy it? When discovery gets easier. When flavor feels intuitive. When the experience fits real life. People don’t drink more. They drink better. People remember how it fit the moment.

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Glanbia has raised its full-year revenue guidance after flagship protein brands delivered strong third-quarter growth. Chief executive Hugh McGuire calls the category a “mega trend”, but can it hold amid high whey costs? https://lnkd.in/eYSBevyc

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🏗️ Sazerac is doubling down on American whiskey. The spirits giant has announced major new investments in Kentucky and Indiana, expanding production and bottling capacity to meet surging global demand for bourbon and American whiskey. The insight: this isn’t just about scaling—it’s about securing supply for a generational opportunity. As whiskey exports climb and premiumization reshapes the category, Sazerac is future-proofing its operations at the intersection of heritage and global growth. Behind the barrels is a bigger story: distillers are treating whiskey not as a trend but as a core asset class—one that demands infrastructure, logistics, and innovation on par with tech. For smaller producers, this reinforces a key point: the bourbon boom still has headroom, but success now requires precision, provenance, and storytelling as much as production. At The Bar Book, we see these investments as proof that the future of American whiskey remains bright—and increasingly connected. Our mission is to make sure every distillery, large or small, has a platform to share its craft, its flavor, and its story with the world. Lesson: when legacy meets long-term vision, you don’t just make whiskey—you build history. 👉 Question: Do you think the bourbon boom is still accelerating, or are we nearing its peak? #BeverageIndustry #Whiskey #TheBarBook #Innovation #Bourbon #Sazerac #Kentucky #CraftSpirits

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The U.S. beer industry is at a turning point. For nearly two decades, the playbook was simple: raise prices annually, protect margins and rely on brand equity to carry the category forward. That model worked… until it didn’t. Today, we’re seeing the consequences across the industry: - Declining volumes - Retailers prioritizing velocity over margin protection - Consumers becoming far more value-conscious Beer has always been an accessible beverage – something meant to be shared at barbecues, concerts and ball games. But over time, repeated price increases pushed the category further away from that core promise. Now the industry is facing a structural reset. In a new piece published by The Beer Connoisseur, I break down: - Why the era of automatic price hikes has ended - What retailers are prioritizing in 2026 resets - How consumer behavior around alcohol and affordability is changing - Why the next cycle of beer growth will be driven by brands that restore balance between price and value At Outlaw Light Beer, we are seeing this shift firsthand as retailers increasingly prioritize brands that can drive real volume and connect with today’s consumer. The industry’s next chapter won’t be defined by pricing power. It will be defined by relevance, accessibility and fairness. ➡️ Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/g3N5bt8C #OutlawLight #TivoliBrewing #BeerIndustry #ConsumerTrends #RetailStrategy

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Big distribution news for American Rebel Light Beer. American Rebel Light Beer has signed a new Missouri distribution agreement with Wil Fischer Distributing—one of the state’s most respected Anheuser-Busch heritage wholesalers. This partnership expands our footprint across south-central, southeast, and northwest Missouri—reaching roughly 900,000 residents and accelerating availability across retail and on-premise. Why it matters: we’re building a Distributor-First growth engine by partnering with execution-proven, top-tier wholesalers—market by market. Next up: major 2026 brand-reach opportunities, including planned activations at Black Oak Amphitheater. Learn more in today’s release (American Rebel Light Beer adds Top Tier Missouri Distribution with Wil Fischer) and visit www.AmericanRebelBeer.com for product and availability updates. #AmericanRebel #AmericanRebelBeer #Distribution #Missouri #BeverageIndustry #RetailExecution #WilFischerCompanies #BlackOakAmp

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MOLSON COORS MISSES EARNINGS, MOVES GUIDANCE LOWER AS ALCOHOL MARKET REMAINS SOFT Molson Coors reported earnings this morning with sales declining -2.3% YoY, Americas shipments down 6.5% YoY Revenues have still not crossed 2Q23 levels

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Dave Lewis has laid out his vision for Diageo and it's a pretty clear pivot away from the premiumisation strategy the company has been running for the better part of two decades. The focus now? Affordability. Sub-$10 price points. Small packs. RTDs. Reaching "all consumers and not just those in the premium space." Desperate times call for desperate measures? Maybe. They will definitely be going against the grain when most of the major indicators for the industry at large are pointing to value over volume, perhaps there is logic to bucking the trend. Economic pressure is real, certain consumers are trading down due to cost of living, and Diageo (says it) is underrepresented in the mass market. As emerging markets come online especially, this could unlock real growth in the short to mid term and steady a share price that has been in free-fall. Lewis spent 28 years at Unilever and he also ran Tesco. His instincts are traditional FMCG through and through but the spirits industry has seen this movie before. A leader comes in from the world of fast-moving consumer goods and treats a bottle of whiskey like it's a packet of crisps or a can of deodorant on a shelf. Volume. Distribution. Sales at any (brand) cost. Pernod learned this lesson the hard way in The States. So have others. Spirits aren't soap. The industry is still built on connection and quality - both at a brand and a human level. When you start racing to the bottom, it's a very hard course to correct and you're signalling something to the brand loyalists that you already have. And in developed markets where brand equity took decades to build, that signal is hard to walk back. Maybe this is the smart contrarian move while everyone else positions premium. Or maybe it's the beginning of a value erosion cycle that Diageo's best brands will feel for years. Either way, it'll be fascinating to watch. https://lnkd.in/gGD3V2t4

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🍺 The beer category’s summer selling season arrived with a whimper, according to the latest Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) from the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA). The June BPI points to a broad industry-wide contraction, signaling continued headwinds for brewers and distributors alike. 📉 https://lnkd.in/g_8SUdiv #BeerIndustry #CraftBeer #BeverageTrends #AlcoholBeverage #IndustryInsights

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The beverage-alcohol companies get it - why do so many food and beverage companies fail to get it? The strategic role of Foodservice. I admit it - I had spent the first 8 years of my CPG career on the retail side at P&G (Mr. Clean, Tide), Sandoz (Neo Citran) and Kraft Foods (Maxwell House), before I was promoted to Category Business Director - Coffee and Beverages, on the Foodservice side at Kraft. I knew, well, nothing about it - Foodservice and Retail rarely, and I mean rarely, spoke. In Retail, we saw ourselves as not only the driver of the bus, but the owner - if Foodservice was allowed on, it would be at the very back. But once I got over, I saw the potential - I mean, it just made so much logical and strategic sense. In a quest to envelop your consumer with your brand, to not leverage the away-from-home eating and drinking occasion was just plain stupid. It helped that the person who promoted me, had been my VP on the retail coffee side and had moved over to be the VP of Kraft Foodservice - he certainly got it - he was very supportive. In fact, at one point, we discussed the potential to redefine the role of Kraft Foodservice to be a breakeven financial business that provided significant branding added value to our retail business - it never went that route, but it did make a lot of sense. Historically, Kraft Foodservice has existed more to be a fixed overhead-coverage business - selling product, not brands, to improve the operational efficiency of our plants. But we started to reach out to Retail to say "why spend all your consumer-messaging money on traditional advertising and promotion, when you can give some to Foodservice and we can place a branded offering in front of your consumer, when they are eating out". Before this, there had been a few branded executions - Philadelphia Cream Cheese helped launch the Tim Horton's bagel program (they dropped Philly once the bagel business was up and running - that is Timmy's)... The coffee business was first to buy in - they funded Nabob branded cafes inside Sears department stores and Maxwell House branded coffee at Burger King. Then, the retail beverage business helped fund the launch of Kool-Aid into away from home. Bull's-Eye BBQ sauce funded a special burger promo at Burger King. All of these were promotions that Foodservice could never have afforded on its own - the margins were just too tight. At Bacardi, like all bev-alc companies, on-premise is a focus channel - it delivers sales revenue and, done well, your brands in front of consumers - the biggest challenge on spirits was to get the "call" - not rum and coke, but "Bacardi and Coke". Same with a "Grey Goose Martini", or "Bombay and Tonic"...in fact, in 2012, we revised our entire company value proposition in Canada to win in on-premise among the premium independent channel, as the vehicle to drive meaningful consumer connections with our brands.

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According to Circana, chocolate candy sales volume dropped 6% this year, and higher cocoa prices are putting chocolate makers on edge this season. Bloomberg examined how brands are responding: https://bloom.bg/4nAOklc

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"Most New CPG CEOs Are Internally Promoted" I was just talking to a B-school student last week who is interested in pursuing a career in the U.S. beverage alcohol industry, and I made a point to tell him that he could forget about distributor sales with his MBA and tech strategy background. It's just my experience after almost 20 years: going all the way up the chain from front-line managers to executives in both distribution and supply, the ranks are closed unless you "paid your dues on the streets". I was actively discouraged from going to business school (Executive program) by a superior who basically summed it up: "If you look at all of the big bosses making big bucks, at all the big distributors and suppliers, it's not guys with MBAs, it's guys who started out building displays, putting up shelf talkers, and then running routes and selling." There's no question he was right, and I think he still is. All of these jobs going all the way up to the top are often gate-kept. What's the result? The industry has a Hapsburg jaw, and not surprisingly it is in poor health. I once made a prediction at drinks with a bunch of distributor managers, some senior to me, some junior: "it won't be long before sales reps get replaced by semi-permanent kiosks that the distributors install in their accounts... why pay a guy a commission on sales and benefits, and then beat your head in trying to get them to show up and call on their accounts, sell what you want them to sell, always answer their phone, and never miss a buy-in, when you can have the customer just key in what they want, when they want, order POS and shelf-talkers, have automated and smart upselling, and be able to video call with a customer service rep at the touch of a button?" There wasn't a single other person who believed that sales reps would ever go away. Typical. I firmly believe that declines have much less to do with declining consumption or Gen Z trends (the more recent research from trusted sources shows that this was a temporary phenomenon) and much more to do with companies still trying to do brand strategy, trade marketing, and sales like it's 1985 instead of 2025. Aggressive wins. There will be companies who will recognize that the game has changed and is never going back, and prioritize bringing in outsider perspectives with disruptive ideas and thrive, and there will be companies whose sales will continue to decline as they keep playing that old tune of doing paid tastings, putting up shelf talkers, and trying to slap down branded bar mats. Tell me why I'm wrong. #CPG #beverage #alcohol #wine #spirits #leadership

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There was considerable coverage given in recent weeks to #PepsiCo's acquistion of #Poppi, which some what over shadowed another huge aquistion in the beverages industry that was announced earlier this month. Multinational diversified business group Castillo Hermanos announced it has entered an agreement with. Brynwood Partners to acquire Harvest Hill Beverage Company for a reported $1.5 billion dollars, in the US 🇺🇸. Harvest Hill is a leading beverage products player in the United States, owning brands like SunnyD, Juicy Juice and Little HUG. The acquisition will significantly expand the U.S. presence of the family-owned Castillo Hermanos, providing a platform for the group to grow its existing U.S. business unit. Castillo Hermanos is partnering with private investment firm Centerview Capital, which has provided a “significant investment” and will be a strategic partner to help grow the U.S. beverage business, the group says. #beverages #sunnyd #taste #citrus #sunnydelight Nina Riggins Elizabeth Horvath Will Kelly Oliver J Kelly Carol Dunne Farrah Gilsenan Sean Ging Bourcard Nesin Jim Watson Will Keating Erlon Pereira Ton Mesters Marc LEJEUNE Stephen Rannekleiv

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How will tariffs impact the beverage-alcohol industry? We captured data on beer shelves nationwide to see how imports stack up against domestics—and what the future might hold for the beer category. 

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Suntory Plans to Lay Off Over 1,000 Employees Suntory's Jim Beam production facility in Kentucky, USA, announced a one-year suspension of some production lines in 2026, affecting approximately 1,000 employees. It also announced the consolidation of the operations teams at its two core Islay distilleries, Bowmore and Laphroaig, and launched a voluntary layoff program. A 2025 report by financial advisory and restructuring firm BTG indicates that 69 distilleries in Scotland are facing serious financial problems, accounting for 19% of the country's total. An additional 217 distilleries in Wales and Northern Ireland also reported financial difficulties. The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) released its 2025 export data, showing that Scotch whisky exports totaled approximately $7.3 billion, a slight decrease of 0.64% year-on-year, with export volume reaching 1.342 billion bottles, a decline of 4.27% year-on-year. The US market was a major drag on exports. Diageo, Brown-Forman, and other major spirits companies have recently taken measures such as reducing production, adjusting production days, or optimizing team structures to cope with sales pressure. In core wine regions like Speyside, some wineries have reduced production from seven days a week to five days to slow down inventory accumulation. Over the next 3-5 years, capacity utilization, inventory structure, and cash flow security will become core performance indicators for businesses.

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Proud to call St. Louis home, and even prouder to see our latest milestone in Anheuser-Busch’s $300M commitment to American manufacturing come to life right here in our hometown. This effort focuses on three big priorities:   1. Creating and sustaining jobs with a new $15M investment in our St. Louis Brewery, strengthening supply chain infrastructure to bring more American-grown ingredients to the brewery and more of our beers to consumers. 2. Building the workforce of the future by opening our world-class Technical Excellence Center to local trade schools with The Manufacturing Institute, marking the first time we’ve shared this training facility beyond our own teams. 3. Expanding opportunities for veterans through digital credentialing that translates military service into skills for meaningful careers in manufacturing.   These steps represent more than investment, they reflect our belief in people, opportunity, and the future of American manufacturing, starting in St. Louis. #BrewingFutures #ThatsWhoWeAre

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The rules of #snacking have been rewritten. What was once a $100bn category of steady favorites is now a $150bn market moving at breakneck speed. Conagra Brands, in partnership with Circana, has mapped the disruption in its first-ever Future of Snacking report. Bob Nolan, SVP of Demand Science at Conagra, says the winners will be those who deliver bold #flavors, credible #wellness claims and omnipresence across every channel. From pickle seasoning crossing categories to #guthealth claims up nearly 200%, the churn is structural, not cyclical. BakeryAndSnacks explores what this means for the future of snacking. https://lnkd.in/exMJ4d4H

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Once viewed as a category with frozen (pun intended) / declining growth, the Frozen Food category has undergone an exciting transformation. With better tasting products, increasingly diverse global flavors, and more nutrient dense, clean label options, Frozen is... hot. Excited to share team Tully & Holland's latest industry paper on Frozen Food!

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