Council on Foreign Relations

The Iran war has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in market history, yet barely dented global growth after 6 months of conflict. Strategic reserves and shale get the credit, but the unexpected cushion is the fuel everyone forgets—demand itself, argues CFR energy expert Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran. "It was widely assumed that mobilizing a coherent and calm demand response quickly in a crisis was nigh impossible—until now." Demand "can play a far greater role in energy management than imagined by policymakers who reflexively reach for supply-side solutions during times of crisis," he writes. Read the analysis: https://lnkd.in/ehg7xjTc

For the first time in nearly 2 decades, a new Pew Research survey—based on interviews with more than 42,000 people across 36 countries—shows China is viewed more favorably than the United States in most nations surveyed. "This is a story driven more by an American decline in soft power than by a Chinese surge," writes expert Yanzhong Huang. "President Trump's authoritarian tendencies have badly damaged the United States' image, but so long as American institutions and rule of law endure, respect for U.S. democracy and diplomacy could plausibly recover under a more conventional future administration," he argues.

“You can’t say that you want to encourage the AI build-out and then second guess corporate decision-making about the debt issuance that is funding that very same AI build-out,” host Sebastian Mallaby says, arguing that U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent’s stance on AI development contradicts the United States’ goal of winning the AI race against China.

On this episode of The President's Inbox podcast, James M. Lindsay sits down with CFR expert Steven A. Cook to unpack the current state of the U.S.-Iran conflict after 6 months of war, broader dynamics in the Middle East, and the shifting U.S. role in the region. Watch or listen wherever you get your podcasts:

“The 60-40 [portfolio] was designed with hedging in mind,” says Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, a global asset management firm. “The challenge is that today the 10 biggest stocks make up 40% of the S&P 500. In other words, most of the returns for the last 5 years in the S&P had basically been driven by AI.” According to Slok, the risk is that, “with hyperscalers also issuing more corporate debt, that [debt] also now depends on AI succeeding.” Watch or listen to the latest episode of The Spillover wherever you get your podcasts: https://bit.ly/4chCoSt

President Trump signed an executive order that calls for changes to childhood vaccine recommendations. "This is the latest in a series of actions aiming to change the vaccine schedule through political directives rather than scientific processes," argues global health expert Stephanie Psaki. If put into effect, the U.S. government would recommend reducing the number of childhood vaccines and splitting up the Measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines into different shots. "The United States has long been a leader in public health expertise—from research and development to regulatory systems and manufacturing," Psaki writes. "If we are no longer making decisions domestically based on evidence, then we both discourage investments in innovation here at home and we risk losing our standing in the world as a global leader in health innovation," she argues.

“Despite the Trump Administration's sweeping new tariffs last year, U.S. spending on imports and income paid to foreigners continued to grow—to a record $6.26 trillion," writes expert Benn Steil. "Fueled by government subsidies, Chinese manufacturers pushed the country's 2025 current-account surplus to a record $735 billion. The rise widened global imbalances that would otherwise have narrowed." Trace which countries are running the world's biggest deficits and surpluses as a percentage of GDP, and how those balances have shifted over time in CFR's Global Imbalances Tracker:

"The end of the American order in the region is upon us. And I think it's a function of the fact that the president went to war based on a feeling," says CFR expert Steven A. Cook. Cook joined James M. Lindsay on The President's Inbox podcast to discuss the fallout from the war with Iran and whether the U.S.-led order in the Middle East has finally come to an end. Watch or listen to the latest episode of The President's Inbox wherever you get your podcasts: https://bit.ly/4qJnGKb

Six months from the beginning of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, 7 CFR experts weigh in on what the conflict means for the United States and the region—and what to look for moving forward. Read the full analyses from Steven A. Cook, Farah Pandith, Henri Barkey, Elliott Abrams, Bruce Hoffman, Ed Husain, and Elisa E.: https://bit.ly/4ceDtKQ